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#225 Bond Summer School

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We're cramming in a summer class on bonds, led by Bond Yoda, Marilyn Cohen. Marilyn founded Envision Capital Management 20 years ago after stints at William O’Neil & Company and Cantor Fitzgerald. Besides her impressive credentials, our favorite fact on her bio is: "In her spare time Marilyn raises service dogs for the disabled and regularly conducts pet therapy sessions at the VA Hospital."

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Marilyn covers the differences between bond funds and individual bonds; the costs involved in buying bonds directly and how you can learn more about the mark up and recent trading of bonds at http://www.investinginbonds.com/.

How should you invest your bond portfolio? Marilyn advises that investors keep it US-centric (though not treasuries) and make sure to focus on 3 to 10 year maturities. She also weighs in on whether or not you should consider so-called "bond alternatives", like REITs, dividend stocks, preferred stock.

You can check out Marilyn's e-book about bonds for free at Smashwords.com or for $0.99 at Amazon.com.

I also mentioned a CBS This Morning segment on saving, which you can find here and the New York Times 1% More Calculator.

Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer in the World. Here's how to contact us:
  • Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE 

Baby Boom: How to Financially Prepare

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Birth rates are UP for the first time since the recession began and economists are cheering! It’s not that the practitioners of the Dismal Science are lovers of baby showers, but they say that the new mini baby boom is yet another example of an improving economy. Birth rates reached a record high of 4.3 million in 2007, when the economy was still percolating. But when the Great Recession hit, rates began to plummet, falling below a level necessary to keep the population steady. The drop-off was expected, because according to various studies, fear of the financial future prevents couples from having babies during downturns.

Thankfully, the low birth rate trend tends to be short-term in nature and six years after the end of the recession, it is finally reversing course. Nearly four million babies were born last year, coinciding with improving economic conditions and jobs data, as well as a renewed boost in consumer confidence and optimism.

It makes sense that people have to feel more secure about their job prospects to make the big financial plunge into parenthood. According to the most recent data from the Department of Agriculture, it costs an average of $245,000 to raise a child -- and that’s BEFORE factoring in college! Here’s the breakdown:

$107,970 (Housing & Transportation) $44,400 (Child care & Education) $39,060 (Food) $33,780 (Clothing & Misc.) $20,130 (Healthcare)

So what can families do to prepare for the financial burden bundle of joy? The first step is to calculate anticipated expenses, including unreimbursed medical claims. To understand what you are likely to encounter, talk with your health care provider about what is and is not covered. Ask about co-pays, co-insurance, deductibles, out-of-pocket costs, birthing and other classes, and specialty tests. If you have the ability to use a flexible spending account (FSA) or health savings account (HSA), you should increase your contributions, so that Uncle Sam helps to shoulder some of the burden.

You will also have to factor in unpaid time off, clothes, diapers, and food -- and assume that many of these costs will be part of your monthly nut for some time to come. You should then try to set aside the extra money that you will need in your emergency reserve fund ahead of time. If cash flow is already tight, you might want to talk to your family about skipping the frivolous gifts and focus instead on the must-haves.

Next, if you are not carrying life insurance or are relying on employer coverage, it is time for action. Both parents need to purchase enough insurance to cover: living expenses for survivors; the lump sum amount necessary to fund future educational expenses; and/or money to provide for the future retirement needs of the surviving spouse. To determine your specific needs, you can use the LifeHappens.org calculator.

Term insurance is best for those who have a specific insurance need for a defined period of time, like new parents who may not yet have saved a sufficient nest egg to support their survivors in the event of premature death. During the stated term of a term-life policy, if the insured dies, the insurance company pays the face amount of the policy to the named beneficiary. Some insurance companies will write policies for pregnant women up until the third trimester, so check around and see what is available and be sure to compare apples to apples.

Finally, a child on the way should prompt you to take care of your estate planning. For many, a simple will (including guardianship instructions), power of attorney and health care proxy should do the trick. However, if the situation is more complicated, you may also need a trust. In all cases, I recommend engaging a qualified estate attorney. This is one area where paying up for advice and expertise is worth it.

Greece, Jeb! and Stock Corrections

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European leaders will convene yet another emergency meeting in Brussels on Monday to discuss how and whether to restructure Greece’s debt. This may all sound like déjà vu all over again, but contrary to five years ago when the Greek drama started to unfold, today investors are less concerned that a default would take down the euro zone or the interconnected global economy. It could however, create a bout of panic in the markets. If officials do not come to an agreement, they will have no choice but to come up with a Plan B, which would likely include capital controls to limit withdrawals from Greek banks and prevent a classic run on the banks (see “It’s a Wonderful Life” for the best explanation of a bank run). In fact, about €5 billion of deposits reportedly left Greek banks last week alone. Instead of a well-orchestrated Grexit, there could be what the FT’s John Authers calls a “Graccident”, where a default would lead to a messy and de facto Grexit. Plan B would also likely include the European Central Bank’s extension of emergency loans to Greek financial institutions and Greece’s preparation of a new currency or IOU system.

As the tragedy that is Greece continues, investors seem more interested in the Federal Reserve. Last week, Chair Janet Yellen elegantly threaded the needle: Yes, the central bank would most likely raise short-term interest rates this year (probably two quarter of a percent increments), but the pace of increases will be gradual. Complicating matters for the central bankers was the first quarter, when the economy contracted by 0.7 percent. Sure, most of the slowdown was due to transitory factors, like weather, the West Coast port shutdown and $40 crude oil, but far be it for this Fed to err on the side of snuffing out potential growth.

The government will provide a third update to Q1 GDP this week, which may show marginal improvement, but most have already set their sights on the rest of the year, which should improve steadily. Because Q1 was such a stinker, growth for the total year is likely to be 2.5 percent, matching the pace of the past few years.

I usually quote the post World War II rate of growth, which is about 3.3 percent, as a benchmark, but according to the New York Times that longer term average may overstate the expected growth rate today. The reason is that “Over the last 40 years, the American economy has grown at an average of 2.8 percent per year,” which is considerably slower than the 3.7 percent average from 1948 to 1975. Additionally, the higher rate includes “two favorable trends that are now over: women entering the work force, and baby boomers reaching their prime earning years.”

The downshift in growth expectations might come as a surprise to newly minted presidential candidate Jeb Bush, who in a speech last week said that his goal for economic growth was 4 percent. The Financial Times called this figure “Fantasyland” and the NYT chimed in, saying Mr. Bush’s 4 percent goal has “close to 0 Percent Chance” at success.

MARKETS: While the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 indexes were making new highs last week, two other indexes weren’t so fortunate. The Dow Jones Transportation Average entered correction territory (a drop of more than 10 percent) for the first time in nearly four years and the Shanghai Composite lost 13.3 percent for the week, the worst week since the financial crisis and the second time this year it has fallen into correction territory. Additionally, last week brought the biggest outflows from bond funds in two years, triggered by the possibility of not one, but two, interest rate hikes later this year. These events were just more fodder for those worried investors who are convinced that the next leg for the broad U.S. market is down.

  • DJIA: 18,015, up 0.7% on week, up 1.1% YTD
  • S&P 500: 2110, up 0.8% on week, up 2.5% YTD
  • NASDAQ: 5,117 up 1.3% on week, up 8% YTD
  • Russell 2000: 1284, up 1.6% on week, up 6.6% YTD
  • 10-Year Treasury yield: 2.27% (from 2.39% a week ago)
  • August Crude: $59.61, down 0.6% on week
  • August Gold: $1201.90, up 1.9% on week
  • AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $2.80 (from $2.80 wk ago, $3.68 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD:

Mon 6/22:

8:30 Chicago Fed

10:00 Existing Home Sales

Tues 6/23:

8:30 Durable Goods Orders

9:00 FHFA Home Price Index

10:00 New Home Sales

Weds 6/24:

8:30 Q1 GDP – final reading (prev = -0.7%)

Thurs 6/25:

8:30 Personal Income & Spending

Fri 6/26:

10:00 Consumer Sentiment

#224 Father's Day Financial Advice, Annuities

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This Father's Day weekend, we have financial advice for dads, moms and kids. Many of you know that my father, "Big Al" or "Albie", had a big influence on me and I miss him terribly. For those who never heard the show where Dad came on as a guest, you can check out this post. I also wrote about him here.

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In this week's show, we spoke to Frank and Camille about annuities, as well as Mike about his asset allocation. Jill wanted advice or ideas about how she could contribute to her household income, perhaps through a small business and Pam asked about the about the Windfall Elimination Provision  of Social Security.

Finally, Vinnie wants to retire early…really early -- no later than 57 and as early as 52 if he can make it work...can he?

Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer in the World. Here's how to contact us:

  • Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE 

Housing Set for Summer Sizzler

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The housing market is coming back and it looks like it will be with a vengeance,” according to economist Joel Naroff. He offered this commentary after a report showed that building permits, an indicator of future activity, soared to the highest pace in nearly eight years. Surging permit requests along with a jump in builder confidence, an increase in activity and a drop in mortgaged residential properties with negative equity could make the summer a strong one for the real estate market. That’s great news for patient homeowners, who have been waiting a long time for the tide to turn. As of March, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index is up 24.7 percent from the post-bubble low set in December 2011, but still remains 7.6 percent below the peak. (In many parts of the country, like the Bay area and portions of New York, prices are above the previous peak.)

But economists are hopeful that activity and prices will continue to perk up, due to a number of factors. The most important catalyst for housing is the improving economy and employment landscape. As Americans feel more confident about the economy and more secure in their jobs, they will be more willing to take the big step of home ownership.

Additionally, mortgage rates remain low and banks are finally loosening credit conditions, both of which has drawn more buyers into the market, including a group called “Boomerang Buyers.” These are homeowners who lost their homes during the housing recession and are ready to jump back into the market.

According to real estate information company RealtyTrac, from 2007 to 2014 some 7.3 million Americans lost their homes to foreclosures or to short sales. Because both of these events can remain on your credit report for up to seven years, this year will see the first wave of return buyers to the market. RealtyTrac projects 250,000-500,000 Boomerang Buyers will come back into the market this year, and then more than a million in the subsequent few years. Presuming that there are no other major credit issues lingering, these people have a good opportunity to come out of the financial doghouse and qualify for a mortgage.

 

Those markets likely to see the largest influx of Boomerang Buyers materialize are those where there were a high percentage of housing units lost to foreclosure and where current home prices are still affordable for median income earners, like Phoenix, AZ, Merced and Stockton, CA and Cape Coral/Ft Myers, FL.

One last group that could help boost the market is Millennials (those aged 18 to 34). Sure, many of them are spooked by home ownership, because they watched their parents navigate the Great Recession and they are graduating college with a hefty chunk of student loans. But they may find that a fixed rate mortgage is the perfect antidote to rising rents. When they do come to that realization, the nation’s homeownership rate, which at 63.8 percent in the first quarter of 2015 is the lowest level since 1989, will reverse course.

If you are entering the market as a buyer, run the numbers and be crystal clear about what you can afford. If you are planning to get a mortgage, go to AnnualCreditReport.com and correct any errors on the report before you start the process, which will make it easier to get pre-approved.

If you are a seller, price your house reasonably. According to realtors, the first three weeks of a home’s entrance on the market are the most critical for creating interest and attracting buyers. If your initial price is too high, it may sit idly on the market. The corollary to overpricing the house is a reluctance to reduce the price. If there’s no action for three to four weeks, it’s time for a price cut.

Fed on the Hot Seat

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Are you ready for your close up, Janet? All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen this week, as the central bank conducts a two-day policy meeting. At her press conference, it is expected that Yellen will stress how the economy is improving, after weakness in the first quarter. In fact, despite all of the concerns over a slowdown, there continues to be more evidence of a pick-up in growth. After the better than expected May jobs report, the Labor Department followed up with news that the number of job openings rose to 5.4 million in April, the highest since the series began in December 2000 and openings are up 22 percent from a year ago.

Additionally, the Labor Department reported that employer costs for compensation jumped 4.9 percent from a year earlier in March, matching the previous quarter’s increase. (Wages and salaries climbed 4.2 percent to $22.88 while benefits rose 6.4 percent to $10.61.) This result is stronger than both the average hourly earnings seen in the May employment report and the Labor Department’s employment cost index, but the underlying message in all three is clear: wage growth is accelerating.

The increase may be sinking in…there was a smart rebound in the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index, despite the recent surge in gasoline prices over the past few weeks and retail sales were up broadly in May.

The improving economic data puts the Fed on the hot seat. Since the last meeting six weeks ago, the labor market has improved; consumers have picked up their spending; and core inflation has been steadily rising. Although few expect the Fed to change either the FOMC statement or rate projections at this meeting, economist Joel Naroff says “By the July meeting, there should be little reason, other than the lack of a press conference, not to start raising rates.”

Others believe that the decision to raise rates is important enough for Chairwoman Yellen to wait until the September meeting so that she can outline the strategy during the scheduled press conference. Either way, it is clear that rates are headed higher within the next 90 days.

MARKETS: Uh oh…just when the data are looking up, one market predictor was less sanguine. The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months, just flashed a warning signal. As of June 10th, pessimism surged to highest level in nine months (32.6%) and optimism plunged to a two-year low (20%). The conventional wisdom is that when sentiment shifts among ordinary schlub investors like us, the market is likely to do the exact opposite thing. To wit, the day that this report was released, the stock market staged a broad rally! Meanwhile, despite the best efforts of global central banks to maintain calm in the fixed income markets, animal spirits are trumping policy initiatives - there continue to be big swings.

  • DJIA: 17,898, up 0.3% on week, up 0.4% YTD
  • S&P 500: 2094, up 0.06% on week, up 1.7% YTD
  • NASDAQ: 5,051 down 0.3% on week, up 6.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000: 1265, up 0.3% on week, up 5% YTD
  • 10-Year Treasury yield: 2.39% (from 2.4% a week ago)
  • July Crude: $59.96, up 1.4% on week
  • August Gold: $1179.20, up 0.9% on week
  • AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $2.80 (from $2.75 wk ago, $3.66 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD:

Mon 6/15:

8:30 Empire State Manufacturing

9:15 Industrial Production

10:00 Housing Market Index

Tues 6/16:

8:30 Housing Starts

FOMC Policy meeting begins

Weds 6/17:

2:00 FOMC Policy Decision/Economic Projections

2:30 Janet Yellen Presser

Thurs 6/18:

10:00 Philly Fed Index

Fri 6/19:

#223 Exploring Robo Advisors with Betterment's Eli Broverman

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For years, small investors have complained that the big firms don’t want their business and when they do, it’s often expensive. Not anymore…There’s been a revolution in the financial advice business, which could help. It’s not a WHO, but a WHAT… automated systems are replacing humans! They’re called ROBO-ADVISORS and we have one of the industry's stars--Betterment co-founder and COO Eli Broverman to explore this amazing trend.

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Eli explains how Betterment works and why he has embraced the pejorative ROBO ADVISOR. If you are wondering if robo is for you, check out my post here.

As stocks stage another run at records, Mike is concerned about a downturn, which would give back a lot of the fantastic returns he has seen over the past six years. What should he do?

Nancy is a widow in her late fifties and still working. Should she re-fi her 30 yr mortgage? We also answered Mary's estate question about rolling over a spouse's retirement account and Mike's titling issue around his deceased in-law's.

Mary's husband will retire by the end of the year and has to make a pension election-what is the best choice for them?

Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer in the World. Here's how to contact us:

  • Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE 

A Spring Back for Jobs

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The death of the job market was greatly exaggerated. Cassandra’s were out in force after the weak first quarter, but to the relief of economists, the May employment report showed a much hoped for spring back in the labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said 280,000 new jobs were added last month, exceeding the consensus estimate of 220,000. The previous two months were revised higher by a total of 32,000. Over the past six months, the economy has added an average of 236,000 jobs per month, a solid gain though lower than last year's monthly average of about 260,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.5 percent for the right reason-like in April, more people joined the labor force and while a number of them landed jobs, some were not able to do so in May. [As a point of reference, in the three years prior to the recession, the unemployment rate averaged 4.8 percent, which is below the post World War II average of 5.8 percent.]

The labor force participation rate (the number of Americans in the labor force or actively seeking employment) ticked up to 62.9 percent, the high end of the narrow range of 62.7 to 62.9 percent seen for the past year. There was also a 268,000-drop in discouraged workers in May to 1.9 million, the lowest number since 2008.

As more candidates snag those coveted jobs, economists say that wage gains are not likely to be far behind. In this report, average earnings increased at a better than expected pace month over month and are now up 2.3 percent from a year ago, the biggest increase since the summer of 2013. Before you pop the champagne, it’s worth considering that 2.3 percent is just a touch ahead of the pokey pace of the past few years, is still below the 3 percent growth seen in the last expansion and not to rub salt into the wound, but increases of more than 4 percent were common in past expansions.

Those wage gains are elusive because there is still significant slack in the labor market. Slack can come in many forms: those 1.9 million discouraged workers; the 6.7 million people working part time, who want a full-time job; and the 2.5 million long-term unemployed. As a report from the Atlanta Fed recently noted: “There is intense competition among job seekers for available job opportunities. And within many jobs, the demand for more hours has been greater than the supply of hours offered by employers.”

Productivity, or lack thereof, is also creating a headwind for wage growth. First quarter productivity decreased at a 3.1 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate and has now fallen for two consecutive quarters, the first time that has happened since 2006. “The most important factor determining living standards is productivity growth, defined as increases in how much can be produced in an hour of work,” Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said in a speech last month. “Over time, sustained increases in productivity are necessary to support rising incomes.”

Finally, economists note that because inflation is running low and the hangover form the recession remains indelible, workers have not demanded higher wages. But the tide could be turning, as the May jobs report showed a little spring in the labor market's step!

MARKETS: Despite fears than an M&A boom is fueling high valuations in the tech sector and pushing stock indexes to unsustainable levels, the action this week was in the bond market. Benchmark government bond yields in Europe, Japan and the US increased to their highest levels of the year. After the jobs report confirmed strengthening in the US economy, the price of the US 10-year dropped and the yield rose to 2.4 percent, the highest closing level since October 6th. The latest action prompts the question: Is the thirty-year bull market in bonds finally coming to a close? Stay tuned…

  • DJIA: 17,849, down 0.9% on week, up 0.15% YTD (3rd consecutive weekly loss)
  • S&P 500: 2092, down 0.7% on week, up 1.65% YTD
  • NASDAQ: 5,068 down 0.03% on week, up 7% YTD
  • Russell 2000: 1261, up 1.1% on week, up 4.7% YTD
  • 10-Year Treasury yield: 2.4% (from 2.1% a week ago, the biggest weekly rise since the June 2013 “taper tantrum”)
  • July Crude: $59.13, down 1.9% on week (first weekly loss since March)
  • August Gold: $1168.10, down 1.8% on week
  • AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $2.75 (from $2.73 wk ago, $3.66 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD:

Mon 6/8:

Apple developer conference: Company expected to launch a streaming music service

Tues 6/9:

9:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

10:00 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

Weds 6/10:

Thurs 6/11:

8:30 Retail Sales

8:30 Import/Export Prices

Fri 6/12:

8:30 Producer Price Index

9:55 U Michigan Consumer Sentiment

#222 The Triple Crown of Financial Shows

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This weekend marks the 71st anniversary of the Allied invasion of Normandy (D-Day). In the sports world, the weekend could mean the  end of thoroughbred racing's 37-year Triple Crown drought. As American Pharoah tries to reign at the Belmont Stakes, we’re tackling your financial questions. The "Jill on Money" Triple Crown means that the show aims to be fun, informative and free!

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We started with Mitch from MN, a 26-year-old engineer, who just got engaged. He and his soon-to-be wife are juggling savings, paying down student loans and retirement planning. What’s the best game plan to attack the debt? Should they refinance their mortgage to pay it off early? So many questions and we have the answers!

Jan from Alaska is 62.5 years old and wants to know if she should avoid filing for Social Security retirement benefits before her Full Retirement Age -- YES! Steve wants to minimize losses before a stock market correction occurs and Stanley from CT is wondering about rolling over his 401 (k) into an IRA.

It was a delight to have guest Eleanor Blayney, the CFP Board of Standards’ Consumer Advocate join the show to discuss inheritance disputes. As Eleanor says, fights over estates “are not just a problem for the rich and famous, or for blended families.” Find out who has a right to contest a will and the ways that families can take proactive steps to avoid these messy post-mortem dustups. You can read Eleanor’s great post about the topic here.

Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer in the World. Here's how to contact us:

  • Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE 

Should You Use a Robo Advisor?

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“Robo advisors are going to kill the brokerage business,” carped a financial consultant from one of the big wire houses. That’s an overstatement, but financial professionals and brokers who have mostly been selling investments and not providing financial advice may find that software and algorithms could eventually make them obsolete. The advent of new technology has put some of these old school pros on their heels, as investors – especially younger ones – find the process of answering risk tolerance questions on line and utilizing computer generated asset allocation plans preferable to face-to-face meetings with various salespeople, who are hocking the product du jour.

Over the past twenty years or so, traditional brokers and advisors have slowly but surely jacked up fees for smaller accounts. It’s not hard to understand why they would do so. Many branch managers tell their staff something along the lines of “it takes the same amount of time and energy to work with a $200,000 client as a $1,000,000 one, so stop spinning your wheels with the small fries!”

The way that large firms stomach working with smaller clients is to either hike their fees (two percent or more for assets under $250,000) or to keep selling high cost, commission-based mutual funds or insurance products. Unfortunately, for those who were not do it yourselfers, there weren’t many other alternatives, that is, until the advent of the robo advisor.

The process is easy: log on to one of the robo advisor platforms like Wealthfront or Betterment, and you will be asked to complete an online questionnaire, which takes into account some of your general financial goals and objectives and your risk tolerance. Based on your responses, the robo advisor’s proprietary algorithm will slot you into the most appropriate portfolio. The firms usually use exchange-traded funds, provide rebalancing, reinvest dividends, and in some cases, can harvest tax losses.

Mutual fund and discount brokerage firms like Vanguard, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, TD Ameritrade and E*Trade have similar variations on the theme. The fees range from 0.25 to 0.75 percent of assets plus fund expenses and most services require an investment minimum.

In some cases, these firms will also provide financial advice, but a bit of caution: it is tough to create a computer model that understands who you are and can listen carefully to address your financial needs. If you have significant assets, a complicated financial life or need some extra hand holding, you may want to eschew the robo advisor route and pay up for a human being, who can provide you with customized, one-on-one advice.

As I have advocated in this space, if you do choose to work with a financial planner, please be sure that he or she is bound by the fiduciary standard. A fiduciary duty means that a financial professional must put your needs first. (CFP® professionals and Certified Public Accountant Personal Financial Specialists (PFS) are both held to the fiduciary duty.) Those who aren’t fiduciaries are held to a lesser standard, called “suitability,” which means that anything they sell you has to be appropriate for you, though not necessarily in your best interest. The SEC has noted, “most [investors] are unaware of the different legal standards that apply to their advice and recommendations…and expect that the recommendations they receive will be in their best interests.”

Here are three resources to find fiduciary advisors:

As robo advisors mature, the choice may not be black and white. In fact, some financial planning and investment management firms are using the new technological platforms to reintroduce their services to smaller clients. This hybrid solution may provide the best of both worlds for those investors who want to keep fees down, but also need financial advice from time to time.