Featured

Pokey Q1 Growth is History

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Another first quarter, another lousy reading for growth…for the third time in five years, the US economy contracted in the first quarter of the year (2011, 2014 and now 2015). If the first time was chance, the second time a coincidence, is the third time indicative of a pattern? “The evidence of a seasonal quirk in the first-quarter GDP growth figures is pretty overwhelming,” according to Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics. While conspiracy theorists maintain that the government is manipulating the data (why on earth would they want to show slower growth?), the larger and more important issue, says Ashworth is “whether real GDP growth (and consequently productivity) is being mis-measured.” Some economists believe that the larger role that technology is playing in the economy is not reflected in the GDP report.

We’ll probably need a few more years of data to understand whether or not the government needs to adjust its models. At this point, it’s fair to say that the combination of bad winter weather, the West Coast port shutdown and shrinking investment in the energy sector due to lower oil prices, did a number on Q1 growth.

This rationale is consistent with Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s recent assessment, “my guess is that this apparent slowdown was largely the result of a variety of transitory factors that occurred at the same time…and some of this apparent weakness may just be statistical noise. I therefore expect the economic data to strengthen."

Hopefully, like in past years, after a rough first three months of the year, the subsequent three quarters will show improvement. With the first quarter now behind us, and two months into the second quarter, there are some encouraging signs that growth has snapped back, with estimates running at about a 3 percent annualized pace. That’s not exactly a breakneck pace, but we’ll take it.

Growth needs to continue to accelerate in order for employers to add to their payrolls. This week, the BLS will release the May employment report and analysts expect that the economy added 225,000 new jobs and that the unemployment rate will remain at 5.4 percent. Once again, all eyes will be on average hourly earnings, which only increased by 2.2 percent from a year ago, as of the April reading. Economists are waiting to see whether the employment cost index, which showed acceleration, will finally show up in average hourly earnings.

Greece is the word…again: Five years after the first bailout, Greece, euro zone and IMF officials must find a way to restructure $1.74B in debt before June 19th. Although Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said that a deal could come over the weekend, IMF Chief Christine Lagarde said that a Greek exit from the euro zone remained a possibility. While international markets are in better shape today than they were five years ago, a Greek default/Grexit would most certainly cause global financial tremors.

MARKETS:

  • DJIA: 18,010, down 1.2% on week, up 1% YTD
  • S&P 500: 2107, down 0.9% on week, up 2.4% YTD
  • NASDAQ: 5,070 down 0.4% on week, up 7% YTD
  • Russell 2000: 1246, up 0.2% on week, up 3.5% YTD
  • 10-Year Treasury yield: 2.1% (from 2.21% a week ago)
  • July Crude: $60.30, up 1% on week
  • August Gold: $1189.80, down 1.2% on week
  • AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $2.73 (from $2.74 wk ago, $3.66 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD:

Mon 6/1:

8:30 Personal Income and Outlays 9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index 10:00 ISM Mfg Index

Tues 6/2:

Motor Vehicle Sales

10:00 Factory Orders

Weds 6/3:

8:15 ADP Private Sector Job Report

8:30 International Trade

9:45 PMI Services Index

10:00 ISM Non-Mfg Index

2:00 Fed Beige Book

Thurs 6/4:

8:30 Productivity and Costs

Fri 6/5:

8:30 May Employment Report

3:00 Consumer Credit

#221 The Best Financial Advice? It Depends

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When you call and write, asking about various financial issues, you'll hear me ask a bunch of nosey questions. I am the first to admit that I am a financial voyeur, but the real reason that I need that information is to determine the best financial advice for you! So often, it really does depend on your specific situation, which is why we avoid dispensing cookie-cutter advice.

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We started the show with a follow up response to last week's question: would you quit your job to take off a year from the grind? Allison did just that, but says, "Looking back I should never of done it."

Greg and Laura are considering the purchase of  a vacation rental home and wanted to know the pitfalls of doing so.

We helped Steve and an anonymous e-mailer with allocation/share type questions; Chrissy with a query about her variable annuity;  helped Maurie guide her 19 year old daughter, who needs financial guidance; and provided Anil with the upside and downside of  carrying a "big, long mortgage."

Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer in the World. Here's how to contact us:

  • Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE 

How to Talk to Your Spouse About Money

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There’s no doubt about it: It’s tricky to talk about money with your spouse/partner. How difficult is it? According to an Associated Press poll of Americans in a romantic relationship, 67 percent said that is was harder to talk about money than any other topic, while just 29 percent thought it was harder to talk about sex. How can you tackle the emotion-laden and sometimes taboo topic of money? Set aside a specific time and place to talk. Try to reduce emotions by setting ground rules: No judgments -- just open dialogue. Use “The Talk” to share financial information, starting with disclosing all accounts, debts and basically coming clean. Research has shown that couples often keep financial secrets, like a hidden bank account or a credit card that carries a big balance. Like most secrets in a relationship, these can be damaging when they are ultimately disclosed.

You should also discuss your financial priorities to ensure that you are on the same page with your partner. This is especially important for younger couples, who may be juggling competing goals like paying down student loan debt and saving to buy a first home or those who are trying to rebuild their financial lives after the Great Recession.

This conversation should prompt you to create a joint spending and debt reduction plan, together. I am all for working toward each partner’s strength. If one is a spreadsheet queen and likes to track money, perhaps she should manage the day-to-day bill paying. If the other is more inclined to manage the investments, that’s ok too. But you must understand the game plan together and then allocate the tasks appropriately.

Sharing financial information and responsibility and working together can ease the burden if one partner is carrying the load. One way to keep an uninvolved partner in the loop is to have a quarterly meeting to review your progress.

Other important areas of communication are insurance coverage, retirement and estate planning, but for now, get cracking on sharing the basics!

529 Day: 5 Myths About College Savings

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As I recently noted, the college class of 2015 is the most indebted ever. There a couple of ways to avoid the student loan trap: choose a cheaper educational route or be lucky enough to have family members that have enough dough that they are able to save money for education, hopefully after they have funded their own retirement accounts! This week, we are celebrating 529 Day (get it? May 29th is 5/29 or 529 Day), when states are trying to boost interest and participation in 529 college savings programs with various incentives. I have long said that the 529 plan is far and away my favorite education-funding vehicle, because it allows for tax-advantaged investing for college. Contributions within the account grow tax-free and are not taxed upon withdrawal, provided they are used for qualified higher education costs. The 529 is like a Roth IRA for education.

529 plans can also be a terrific estate planning tool, because wealthy grandparents can remove assets from their estates either by using the annual gift tax exclusion of $14,000 or by making a lump sum that is far larger (check with your plan to determine the maximum allowable limit). The nice part is that the donor can maintain control over the investments and the ultimate use of the money.

Just remember that while a grandparent’s assets are not included when colleges determine eligibility for financial aid, there is a big downside to using a 529 plan that is in the grandparent’s name: When money is withdrawn to make a payment on behalf of the beneficiary of the plan, students must disclose those amounts as income. For every dollar of income, a student’s aid eligibility may be reduced by as much as 50 cents. In order not to diminish the ability to receive aid, there are a few work-around solutions.

i. Wait to use money in the 529 until the student’s senior year: Tapping the account for the last year of school shouldn't affect eligibility, because the year in which the income will be reported (as income for the previous year) will also be the year in which the student graduates.

ii. Transfer ownership of account: A few years before the first aid application is due, grandparents could transfer ownership of the account to a parent of the beneficiary. Assets in a parent-controlled account get assessed for financial aid purposes, but disbursements do not appear on the income statement of either the parent or the student. Fair warning on this idea: some states, like New York, do not allow changes in account ownership unless there’s a court order or the owner dies.

iii. If the 529 plan ownership seems too complicated, grandparents might considering gifting the money to the parents, who can then deposit the gift into their own 529 accounts that have been established for the kids. It makes sense to wait until after the aid has been determined before making the gift. Alternatively, extended family members may choose to wait until the student has graduated and then help with college loan repayment.

There are some people who could afford to snag money or save for college, but fall prey to a number of misconceptions, which prevent them from acting. Let's dispel some of those myths right now!

1.“I’m not going to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) form, because I make too much money to qualify.”

What’s the number one reason that families don’t qualify for financial aid? According to one college financial aid officer, the answer is obvious: because families do not complete the necessary paperwork. Those with household income below $250,000 and two dependents should spend the time and at least attempt to grab a few bucks. Maybe it will all be for naught, or maybe a few tedious hours of work will be worth a few thousand dollars next semester.

2.“I’m not going to save for college because it will count against me for financial aid.”

Some of your savings can reduce a portion of your need-based aid, but the amount of that reduction may be smaller than you think. The money in retirement plan accounts is not counted, nor is the equity in the family's residence. Additionally, a portion of assets held by the parents is not counted, based on the age of the older parent.

Assets owned by parents for a dependent child are assessed up to 5.64 percent, while assets in the child’s name are assessed at a 20 percent rate, which is why it's preferable to hold accounts in the parents’ names. Let’s say that by the time junior heads off to school, you have saved $100,000 in the kid’s 529 plan, your potential aid may be reduced by $5,640, leaving you with plenty of money to help pay for college.

3. "Rather than save for college, I’m going to count on government grants to cover costs."

Although grants are great, they will not cover the total nut for most colleges. The Pell Grant covers about 10 percent of current private four-year college costs and work study can add up to another 20 percent.

 4. "Why save now when I can borrow later?"

Before families start saving for college, I recommend that they get their financial houses in order. That means paying down consumer debt, establishing an emergency reserve fund of six to 12 months worth of expenses and maximizing their retirement savings. But once those big three goals have been accomplished, it makes sense to save today rather than worrying about whether interest rates will rise in the future. Put another way, when you save, you earn interest; while when you borrow, you pay interest.

5. “My kid is a great soccer/basketball/football player, so he/she will get a scholarship.”

As a former varsity NCAA athlete, let me share something with you that few others will tell you: your kid is probably not as good an athlete you think. Of course I thought that I was an awesome soccer player when the collegiate recruiters came calling, but within the first week of practice, I quickly learned that I was a decent player and one who would never have been given a free ride. It is very difficult to earn a scholarship and it is not prudent to count on a future scholarship as the basis of your college funding plan.

 

Financial Advice for the Class of 2015

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Amid college graduation season, I am often asked to provide financial advice for college students, who are heading out into the “Real World”. I’m hoping that six years after the worst recession since the Great Depression, the class of 2015 will be more financially prudent than some of its predecessors. That said, recent grads, as well as their elders who are trying to get their financial lives back on track, should work hard to complete “The Big 3”. (1) Pay down debt. Your first priority is to pay off the highest interest consumer-related loans (credit card and autos) and then work your way down to the lower interest ones. If you are among the nearly 70 percent of 2015 graduates with student loans, pay the minimal amount while you are whittling down your consumer debt. If the only debt you have is a student loan, then feel free to make extra payments to accelerate your pay-off time – the average student borrower takes about 20 years to repay the loans and the sooner you repay, the quicker that degree will pay you great dividends!

(2) Establish an emergency reserve fund of 6-12 months’ worth of expenses. This is also the account where you may want to accumulate money for a car or house down payment or any near-term financial goal -- meaning funds that you plan to access within the next year.

(3) Maximize retirement contributions. This is a tough one-very few recent graduates will earn enough money to put away the maximum of $18,000 this year, but many could contribute at least up to the company’s match level; or if they don’t have an employer plan, they could try to fund a Roth IRA up to the $5,500 maximum.

Job Insecurity: On the career front, it is clear that the labor market has shifted and workers now work for many companies, especially in the early years after college. Remember that your first job will not be the last one and the rotten job you hate today may be useful in helping you to figure out where you want to go tomorrow. Definitely cultivate a network, but do so carefully—nobody likes a nudge, who only makes contact when seeking a favor. Finally, be willing to take chances or move laterally so that you can position yourself for the next phase of your career.

MARKETS:

  • DJIA: 18,232, down 0.2% on week, up 2.3% YTD
  • S&P 500: 2126, up 0.2% on week, up 3.3% YTD
  • NASDAQ: 5,089 up 0.8% on week, up 7.5% YTD
  • Russell 2000: 1244, up 0.6% on week, up 3.9% YTD
  • 10-Year Treasury yield: 2.21% (from 2.14% a week ago)
  • July Crude: $59.72, down 1.4% on week
  • June Gold: $1204, down 1.7% on week
  • AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $2.74 (from $2.70 wk ago, $3.66 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD:.

Mon 5/25: Markets closed for Memorial Day

Tues 5/26:

8:30 Durable Goods Orders

9:00 Case Shiller Home Price Index

10:00 New Home Sales

10:00 Consumer Confidence

Weds 5/27:

G-7 finance ministers and central bankers meet (through Fri) - Greece will be the focus

Thurs 5/28:

10:00 Pending Home Sales

Fri 5/29: 529 College Savings Plan Day

8:30 Q1 GDP (2nd estimate could show a contraction from prelim reading of +0.2%

9:45 Chicago PMI

10:00 Consumer Sentiment

#220 Memorial Day, How to Buy Bonds

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The roots of Memorial Day go back to the aftermath of the Civil War. It has since been expanded to honor those who have made the ultimate sacrifice for their country. It’s also an opportunity to consider those veterans who are trying to transition into a civilian life. While working on a story, I stumbled upon a great resource for military personnel who are entering the broader job market: GIJobs.com, so pass it on to someone who might need a break!

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The theme of this week's show is "How to Buy Bonds", because both Chris and Jay have big portfolios, allocated almost exclusively to stocks. Each voiced the same concern: Although they want to buy bonds, they find it hard to do so, just as interest rates are poised to rise. We provide both of them with some ideas to accomplish a more balanced portfolio.

Paul has a fixed annuity that will mature in November, but if he cashes it in, he will be on the hook for a big tax liability. He wonders what options are available to mitigate the tax hit.

Should Gary use the proceeds of his primary home sale to pay off the mortgage on his second home? While it might be great to feel unburdened without a mortgage, he might regret not having access to the money.

The existential question of the week comes from Jessica, who asks, "Is it financial suicide to consider taking 6 to 12 months off of work for both working parents mid-career?" Feel free to weigh on this conversation!

Mark and Caroline are busy juggling priorities. What should they do with an extra $1,000 per month? Pay down debt, save for a house or open a 529 college savings plan?

John asks whether all of the staff at the registered advisory firm with which he works, must be registered individually...the answer: Maybe, but maybe not!

Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer in the World. Here's how to contact us:

  • Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE 

Class of 2015: Most Indebted Ever

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The graduating class of 2015 may be partying like it’s 1999! A study earlier this year from Michigan State University found that employers have been recruiting new college graduates at levels not seen since the go-go years of the technology boom and Y2K (remember that?). With economy and the job market picking up steam, hiring of college graduates this year was expected to be up by 16 percent from a year ago, though the National Association of Colleges and Employers puts the increase at 9.6 percent. Either way, the market for recent grads is improving and more than half of employers are offering signing bonuses, the highest percentage in five years.

Of course it is easier to get a job with a degree. The national unemployment rate stands at 5.4 percent and is 4.8 percent for recent college graduates and 2.7 percent for all college graduates. With that degree comes increased earnings potential: the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found that the average U.S. college graduate is likely to earn at least $800,000 more than the average high school graduate over her working years.

All of this good news about college comes with an asterisk: the ability to land a good job out of college often depends on a graduate’s major. According to a report by the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, “Recent college graduates who major in arts, psychology, and social work earn $31,000 per year, only $1,000 more than the average high school educated worker. By comparison, recent graduates who majored in engineering earn $57,000 per year, almost twice as much as the average high school graduate.”

For families that are spending tens and even hundreds of thousands of dollars, the Georgetown report begs the question: What if my child is not interested in the STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) majors? While you can’t force college students to study what you believe is most prudent for them; if they are likely to head into a liberal arts field with a lower earning potential, you need to steer them into a cheaper undergraduate education (community and public schools or private colleges that offer loads of grants) and to keep a lid on total borrowing.

Many families can only get their kids through college by assuming loans. That’s why total outstanding student debt (federal and private) reached nearly $1.2 trillion at the end of the first quarter of 2015. The class of 2015 is only going to add to that staggering sum: its graduates are the most indebted ever. The average graduate with a student-loan owes just over $35,000, according to Edvisors. Adjusted for inflation, that’s more than double the amount borrowers had two decades ago. Unless these graduates are about to land one of those plum STEM jobs, they could be paying off their loans for decades. (The average student repays her college debt within 20 years of graduation.)

Students and their families need to strike a balance between the increasing necessity of completing a college education (earlier research from Georgetown predicted that the share of jobs requiring post-secondary education will likely increase to 64 percent by 2020, a big jump from 50 percent in the 1970s) and the decision to assume tens of thousands of dollars of loans to earn that coveted degree.

One way to keep debt levels in check is to only assume a total student debt load that matches what you think you (or your prospective graduate) will earn in the first year of work. If you’re going to be an engineer or software designer, you can borrow a total of $50,000 to $60,000, twice the amount of an art history or education major. It may not seem fair, but to navigate the current labor market effectively, without draining current and future resources, this rule of thumb may keep the scales balanced.

Men, Women and Money

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In the category of “not breaking news”, here’s a headline to consider: “Men and Women are DIFFERENT in their approaches to Managing Money.” (Before some of you write in and tell me that you and/or your spouse/partner does not fit the classic descriptions, what I am about to discuss is based on surveys and doesn’t pertain to all!) Women tend to view money “holistically, emotionally” according to New York Times writer M.P. Dunleavy. According to her review of gender-specific investment data over the past five years, women’s approach to money focuses on long-term saving, while men are all about transactions and performance.

The general difference may explain why communicating about money is so difficult. According to an Associated Press-GfK poll of Americans in a romantic relationship, 67 percent said that is was harder to talk about money, while just 29 percent thought it was harder to talk about sex. I leave the sex part to experts in that field, but given the focus of this column, I thought it might be useful to see what each sex can learn from the other to improve everyone’s comfort with financial matters.

When it comes to investing, a study conducted in the 1990s found that men are more overconfident than women. That may seem like a good trait, but when translated into numbers, researchers found “that men trade 45 percent more than women.” Increased trading increases your chance of losing and it amounts to investors’ racking up transaction fees, which can lower portfolio returns. “Trading reduces men’s net returns by 2.65 percentage points a year as opposed to 1.72 percentage points for women.” In other words, men’s investment performance was about one percent worse than that of women’s.

Because that research was conducted in the nineties, when trading costs were higher, perhaps the differential may have narrowed twenty years hence. Wrong! Portfolio platform SigFig conducted a study, which concurred with the older data. In an examination of 750,000 portfolios in 2014, which anonymized for gender, netted out fees and included dividends, the results were clear: women investors earned an average of 4.7 percent for the year and men earned 4.1 percent. (The S&P 500 index increased by 11.4 percent in 2014, excluding dividends, so both genders were likely utilizing balanced portfolios.) That differential may not seem like a lot, but “With $100,000 to invest and assuming this performance trend continued for 30 years, a woman would earn $58,000 more than a man.”

Despite their underperformance versus both the benchmark and their female peers, men were 1.5 times more confident that they would beat the market in 2015. At least they’re consistent! The big lesson men can learn from women is to slow down on the trading-it really takes a bite out of your bottom line!

Men should also borrow a page from women when it comes to retirement planning. According to a study by Prudential, “With a longer life expectancy, women generally assign higher levels of importance to long-term financial goals than men.” Because of that big picture approach, women tend to be better savers than men.

A Fidelity study found that while women typically earn two-thirds of what men do, and their retirement balances are smaller on average, they actually save more of their income: 8.3 percent versus 7.9 percent for men. Again, small percentages can add up—if you earn $50,000, the 0.4 percent equals $200 more per year, every year, than men.

So what can women learn from men? A Vanguard study found that women can be more risk-averse than men, which can be good, but not in the extreme, especially for younger women. SixFig found that women tend to own more expensive funds than men, so they are throwing away money on an annual basis and perhaps most importantly, women need to embrace their abilities to manage money and trust themselves.

Why are Americans Down?

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What’s going on with the American consumer? Most economists thought that the plunge in energy prices would eventually show up in a little extra spending elsewhere in the economy. So far, that has not been the case. Retail sales in April were flat and excluding gasoline, they were up just 0.1 percent from March. People are not spending, because they are not buying that the economic recovery is for real. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped sharply, with respondents’ saying that they are still concerned about losing their jobs. In fact, they reported the highest probability of losing their jobs since 2009. The sour mood coincides with data showing that new jobless claims remain at 15-year lows.

And it’s not just in the U.S., says Capital Economics “consumers in advanced economies [US, euro zone, UK and Japan] have so far opted to save, rather than spend, their oil windfall.” All is not lost, because there is hope that as labor markets strengthen, confidence and spending should follow. Additionally Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors reminds us that the retail sales report does “not include services, which is two-thirds of spending, so we really cannot count the consumer out just yet.”

In addition to consumer spending, which is expected to spring back in the coming months, hopes are high for continued housing market gains. For much of the recovery, potential first time homebuyers were opting for rentals due to a combination of outstanding student loan debt, difficulty in obtaining mortgages and a generalized fear of owning a home. The later two issues appear to be dissipating (home purchase mortgage applications increased to a two-year high in April), especially as rents rise in many of the cities where young, first time buyers live.

Unfortunately, outstanding student loans could continue to partially impede progress in the housing market. Just in time for college graduation season, the New York Federal Reserve reported that total outstanding student loan debt increased to 1.2 trillion in the first quarter, up $78 billion from a year ago. Additionally, the college class of 2015 holds a dubious distinction: its graduates are the most indebted ever. The average graduate, with a student-loan, owes just over $35,000, according to Edvisors. Adjusted for inflation, that’s more than double the amount borrowers had two decades ago.

MARKETS: Consumer confidence may be down, but that hasn't stopped investors from pushing up stocks at or near record levels.

  • DJIA: 18,272, up 0.5% on week, up 2.5% YTD (16 points from all-time high)
  • S&P 500: 2122, up 0.3% on week, up 3.1% YTD (8th record close of the year)
  • NASDAQ: 5,048 down 0.9% on week, up 6.6% YTD
  • Russell 2000: 1244, up 0.7% on week, up 3.3% YTD
  • 10-Year Treasury yield: 2.14% (from 2.15% a week ago)
  • June Crude: $59.96, up 0.5% on week
  • June Gold: $1225.30, up 3.1% on week
  • AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $2.70 (from $2.66 wk ago, $3.65 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD: Traders are eagerly awaiting a long weekend-most will focus on minutes from the last Fed policy meeting and earnings reports from some of the nation’s largest retailers.

Mon 5/18:

Urban Outfitters

10:00 Housing Market Index

Tues 5/19:

Home Depot, TJX, Wal-Mart

8:30 Housing Starts

Weds 5/20:

Lowes, Sears, Staples, Target

2:00 FOMC Minutes

Thurs 5/21:

Aeropostale, Best Buy, Dollar Tree, Gap

10:00 Philly Fed

10:00 Existing Home Sales

Fri 5/22:

Ann Taylor, Foot Locker

8:30 Consumer Price Index

#219 The Real Estate Show

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Spring has finally sprung and we are celebrating by giving you an overview of the 2015 housing market. Our two guests, Ilyce Glink and Billy Wright, have advice for buyers and sellers and tips about how to navigate the process without losing your mind!

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Ilyce is an award-winning, nationally syndicated columnist, television guest and radio talk show host - you can check out her great information on her website, ThinkGlink.

After providing an  overview of the current market, Ilyce also reminded us that the government's HARP and HAMP plans to help struggling homeowners were both extended. Ilyce has great tips for buyers and sellers in these three books:

Billy Wright of Par East Mortgage Company in East Hampton, NY says that with interest rates still at low levels, the mortgage market is heating up. Even those with once-shaky credit are able to borrow again, though it still remains tough for small business owners.

Howard asked about whether he should use reverse mortgage and Ron needed clarification about emergency reserve funds.

Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer in the World. Here's how to contact us:

  • Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE