Greek Bailout

Pokey Q1 Growth is History

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Another first quarter, another lousy reading for growth…for the third time in five years, the US economy contracted in the first quarter of the year (2011, 2014 and now 2015). If the first time was chance, the second time a coincidence, is the third time indicative of a pattern? “The evidence of a seasonal quirk in the first-quarter GDP growth figures is pretty overwhelming,” according to Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics. While conspiracy theorists maintain that the government is manipulating the data (why on earth would they want to show slower growth?), the larger and more important issue, says Ashworth is “whether real GDP growth (and consequently productivity) is being mis-measured.” Some economists believe that the larger role that technology is playing in the economy is not reflected in the GDP report.

We’ll probably need a few more years of data to understand whether or not the government needs to adjust its models. At this point, it’s fair to say that the combination of bad winter weather, the West Coast port shutdown and shrinking investment in the energy sector due to lower oil prices, did a number on Q1 growth.

This rationale is consistent with Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s recent assessment, “my guess is that this apparent slowdown was largely the result of a variety of transitory factors that occurred at the same time…and some of this apparent weakness may just be statistical noise. I therefore expect the economic data to strengthen."

Hopefully, like in past years, after a rough first three months of the year, the subsequent three quarters will show improvement. With the first quarter now behind us, and two months into the second quarter, there are some encouraging signs that growth has snapped back, with estimates running at about a 3 percent annualized pace. That’s not exactly a breakneck pace, but we’ll take it.

Growth needs to continue to accelerate in order for employers to add to their payrolls. This week, the BLS will release the May employment report and analysts expect that the economy added 225,000 new jobs and that the unemployment rate will remain at 5.4 percent. Once again, all eyes will be on average hourly earnings, which only increased by 2.2 percent from a year ago, as of the April reading. Economists are waiting to see whether the employment cost index, which showed acceleration, will finally show up in average hourly earnings.

Greece is the word…again: Five years after the first bailout, Greece, euro zone and IMF officials must find a way to restructure $1.74B in debt before June 19th. Although Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said that a deal could come over the weekend, IMF Chief Christine Lagarde said that a Greek exit from the euro zone remained a possibility. While international markets are in better shape today than they were five years ago, a Greek default/Grexit would most certainly cause global financial tremors.

MARKETS:

  • DJIA: 18,010, down 1.2% on week, up 1% YTD
  • S&P 500: 2107, down 0.9% on week, up 2.4% YTD
  • NASDAQ: 5,070 down 0.4% on week, up 7% YTD
  • Russell 2000: 1246, up 0.2% on week, up 3.5% YTD
  • 10-Year Treasury yield: 2.1% (from 2.21% a week ago)
  • July Crude: $60.30, up 1% on week
  • August Gold: $1189.80, down 1.2% on week
  • AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $2.73 (from $2.74 wk ago, $3.66 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD:

Mon 6/1:

8:30 Personal Income and Outlays 9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index 10:00 ISM Mfg Index

Tues 6/2:

Motor Vehicle Sales

10:00 Factory Orders

Weds 6/3:

8:15 ADP Private Sector Job Report

8:30 International Trade

9:45 PMI Services Index

10:00 ISM Non-Mfg Index

2:00 Fed Beige Book

Thurs 6/4:

8:30 Productivity and Costs

Fri 6/5:

8:30 May Employment Report

3:00 Consumer Credit

Pay Raises Ahead?

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Nearly six years after the official end of the recession, something exciting is about to happen: Americans are likely to FINALLY get a raise! Government data (the Employment Cost Index or “ECI”) showed that compensation in the first quarter increased by 2.6 percent from a year ago, up from the 2.2 percent gain in the previous quarter and the fastest pace since Q4 2008. The private sector did even better, seeing an annual growth rate of 2.8 percent, the best year over year pay gain since Q3 2008. A year ago, the rise in private sector wages and salaries was only 1.7 percent, so while growth rates are still modest by historical standards, this report demonstrates good progress and is a sign of potentially more robust increases later this year. Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors predicts, “Within a quarter or two at the most, we should be back above 3 percent,” which is just about average for an expansion.

How can we square this upbeat information with the monthly jobs report category of “average hourly earnings”, which showed annual growth of just 2.1 percent in Q1 (and for the entire recovery)? Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal notes, “The divergence may be explained by the fact that the quarterly figures include commissions and other performance-based pay, which rose sharply in the first quarter, and may not be repeated.” That may be true, but it should also be noted that the Fed has traditionally put more weight on the employment cost index, since it tracks the same jobs over time and adjusts for the changing mix of jobs in the economy. If Janet thinks ECI is the better gauge to use, then we should too.

Other indicators have enhanced the case for future pay raises: weekly jobless claims are hovering at 15-year lows; ISM Service sector indicators are strengthening; and a variety of big companies, including McDonalds, Wal-Mart, Target, Cheesecake Factory and Aetna, have all announced an increase in pay to lower wage workers.

We’ll learn more about the state of the nation’s labor market this week, when the government releases the April employment update. Economists are hopeful that the weak March report, where just 126,000 positions were created, was a one-off event, rather than a more worrisome trend that is gripping the nation. The consensus estimate is that 220,000 new jobs were created and for the unemployment rate to edge down by a tenth of a percent to 5.4 percent.

Happy Anniversary, Greek Bailout! Time sure does fly, when you bail out an indebted nation. It has been FIVE YEARS since Europe and the International Monetary Fund first agreed to bail out Greece (May 2, 2010). Eurozone officials are busy trying to hammer out yet another debt restructuring with Greece, which once again faces a summer default without a deal.

MARKETS: That thud you heard this week was the sound of plummeting social media stocks. Twitter, LinkedIn and Yelp all tumbled by more than 20 percent on the week, after weaker than expected earnings reports and dim prospects for the rest of the year. Social media stocks have been on a massive run and even with these three misfires, the social media index (SOCL) is up over 10 percent this year, 3.5 percent better than the NASDAQ Composite.

  • DJIA: 18,024, down 0.3% on week, up 1.1% YTD
  • S&P 500: 2108, down 0.4% on week, up 2.4% YTD
  • NASDAQ: 5,005 down 1.7% on week, up 5.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000: 1267, down 3.1% on week, up 2% YTD
  • 10-Year Treasury yield: 2.12% (from 1.92% a week ago)
  • June Crude: $59.15, up 3.5% on week (up 25% in April, biggest monthly gain since 5/09)
  • June Gold: $1174.50, down 0.03% on week
  • AAA Nat'l avg for gallon of regular Gas: $2.60 (from $2.51 week ago, $3.69 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD:

Mon 5/4:

Cablevision, Comcast

10:00 Factory Orders

Tues 5/5:

Zillow

8:30 International Trade

10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

Weds 5/6:

MetLife, Prudential, Whole Foods

8:15 ADP Private Sector Jobs

8:30 Productivity

Thurs 5/7: UK Election

Zynga

3:00 Consumer Credit

Fri 5/8:

AOL

8:30 April Employment Report