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#262 Identity Theft Protection with Adam Levin

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As the incidence of identity theft rises, our guest Adam Levin says “You’re going to get got,” so it’s best to assume the worst and learn how to protect your personal information. Adam is consumer advocate with more than 30 years of experience and is a nationally recognized expert on security, privacy, identity theft, fraud, and personal finance. A former Director of the New Jersey Division of Consumer Affairs, Levin is Chairman and founder of IDT911 (IDentity Theft 911) and co-founder of Credit.com.  In Adam’s new book “Swiped” he discusses the threats associated with identity theft.

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Here's the problem: Creative and determined hackers can piece together snippets of information from a variety of sources to re-create your profile and use it to undermine your credit score or learn when and where you’re on vacation, which leaves your house vulnerable to theft. That means that you need to guard your information, including Social Security Numbers, phone numbers, email and physical addresses, credit reports, medical records -- basically thieves are trying to create a well-rounded dossier on who you are!

Adam's "Three Ms" - Minimize your exposure (guard your information), Monitor your accounts (keep an eye on credit scroes, consider instant alerts from credit card companies and banks, as well as a credit freeze) and Manage the damage (there are sopecific steps to follow if your information is compromised) - are essential for every consumer

Common types of identity theft sources include credit card scams, data breaches, social media posts, healthcare fraud, and even "smart TVs. Adam also discussed tax theft and social media do’s and don’ts

Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer in the World and the worst LinkedIn User. Here's how to contact us:

  • Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE 

Tax Prep 2016

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Tax prep season is in full swing and the good news is that due to a local Washington DC holiday, the tax -filing deadline is April 18th, rather than the traditional April 15th, so you will have an extra three days. That doesn’t mean that you should dawdle. In fact, there may be a good incentive to get your act together earlier this tax season: fraud prevention. Last year the IRS acknowledged that criminals had accessed IRS.gov to steal information on nearly 400,000 taxpayers and states are also on high alert, after the filing of fraudulent returns, which prompted TurboTax to halt e-filings. While the IRS announced several measures the agency says will prevent tax fraud, filing early may be your best bet to prevent others from trying to file a return in your name. Another anti-fraud tip to remember: the IRS never initiates contact with taxpayers about their accounts through e-mail, text messages or other social media. If you get an unsolicited e-mail claiming to come from the IRS, do not open attachments or click on any links and forward it to the IRS.

Whether you prepare your own returns or engage a professional, create a file called “2015 Taxes”. In it, put last year’s return, which will be your guide to what’s missing. Be on the lookout for tax documents that are rolling in, including 1099’s and W-2s and information from bank, investment/mutual fund companies and lenders should have all sent tax documents by mid-February. If you didn't receive them, they may be  available online. Gather your credit card summaries and review checking accounts for deductions, like charitable donations and job search costs.

This is the second tax season where you will need to tell the government whether or not you have health insurance. Taxpayers are not required to send the IRS information forms or other proof of health care coverage when filing their tax return. However, if you have coverage through the Marketplace and qualify for a premium tax credit, you must file a tax return with Form 1095-A to claim the credit and to reconcile any advance payments made on their behalf in 2015. A reminder, the penalty for not having health insurance has increased: it is the greater of $325 per adult or 2 percent of your taxable income. There are a number of exemptions - go to HealthCare.gov to see if you qualify.

Many of you have asked me whether or not you need to hire CPA. If you have a complicated financial life, you may want to pay up for a professional. For example, those who are self-employed may want someone who is familiar with Schedule C; who can advise on the best type of retirement plan to use; and who will let you know if you should file a Form 1099 to report any payments you made to others. Or if you had a lot of investment activity, sold property, have to file an estate tax return for someone else, or if you are one of the over 5 million taxpayers who are subject to Alternative Minimum Tax, you may want to guidance to help minimize the tax consequences. If this is the first year that you are hiring a tax preparer, make sure that he or she is legitimate -- use the IRS database to check on credentials.

Low-and moderate-income taxpayers should use the Volunteer Income Tax Assistance or and Tax Counseling for the Elderly, which is operated by the AARP Foundation’s Tax Aide Program. If eligible, you can get FREE help by visiting one of the more than 12,000 community-based tax help sites staffed by volunteers. To find the nearest site, use the IRS' VITA/TCE Site Locator.

If you are going it alone and your income is $62,000 or less, the IRS provides free tax prep software called “Free File”. If you don’t qualify, you are left with three main choices: Turbo Tax, H&R Block and Tax Act. Most tax preparers that I spoke to say that Turbo Tax may be the best bet, even though it costs more than its competitors. They cite Turbo Tax’s easier to use platform and the interface’s ability to save time and reduce errors.

Whether you prepare your own returns or hire a pro, be sure to e-file, because the IRS says that the the error rate for a paper return is about 20 percent, compared with an e-file return error rate of about one percent. And if you are due a refund, it will come faster if you e-file.

If you are worried about an audit, take heart in the fact that due to IRS budget cuts, audits of individual taxpayers fell to the lowest rate in 11 years. Less than one percent (0.84%) of individual taxpayers – just over 1.2 million individuals -- were audited in the 2015 fiscal year, the lowest level since 2004. That doesn't mean that you should go cray. The top audit red flags include: Not reporting income, a large change in income, being self-employed and taking higher-than-average deductions. And the highest earners, especially those with incomes of more than $1 million, are much more likely to be audited than everyone else. Just have plenty of back up records and documentation if you fall into one of these categories.

 

Bear Market Lessons

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I hate to bring you back to a scary time, but seven years ago this week; U.S. stock markets plunged to their worst levels of the entire bear market 0f 2008-2009. Although the entire financial system almost went over the cliff in September and October of 2008, it wasn’t until March 9, 2009 that stocks hit rock bottom. On that day, the Dow closed at 6547; the S&P 500 fell to 676; and the NASDAQ was at 1268. Thankfully, markets have charged higher since those dark days, but with recent volatility and market corrections, now seems like a perfect time to review those painful bear market lessons.

1. If want to take the ride, you have to prepare for ups and downs. The first time I went on the Dragon Coaster at Rye Playland, I learned this lesson, but that ride lasted just about two minutes. Unfortunately, the investor roller coaster spans a lifetime. If you plan to own securities to fund future obligations, you must accept that bear markets are part of the process. The good news is that not all bear markets are as awful as the last one, which was the most severe since the 1930’s.

2. Bear Markets are GOOD for long-term investors. Plunging markets are tough on the nerves, but if you are still saving for retirement or college, take solace in the fact that you are buying shares, which will eventually be seen as being on sale. As Warren Buffett once said, “Prospective purchasers [of stocks] should much prefer sinking prices.”

3. Borrowing can be dangerous. Whether it’s a house or a dot-com stock, one lesson is just because some bank/investment company is willing to lend you a lot of money, does not mean that you should take it. Too much leverage can be a scary thing, both for individuals and for companies. That’s why some basic rules of thumb exist—to keep us out of trouble!

For example, putting down a 20 percent down payment for a house is prudent, because just in case the housing market collapses, you have more built-inequity. A corollary of the debt warning is to read the fine print on all documents. There were too many instances when borrowers really did not understand the terms of the loans that they were assuming. Although many regulations now require more transparency and disclosure, we must be vigilant in reviewing documents to protect ourselves.

4. Emotions are your enemy. There's no better event to learn the lesson of how investor fear can lead you astray than the recent bear market. From the beginning stages in 2008 through the bear market low and then for months – even years – later, many investors wanted to sell everything and hide under the bed. That was an understandable feeling-it really was scary!

The big problem with selling when conditions are grim is that very few investors have the wherewithal to get back into the fray. When they do, it is usually long after markets have clawed their way back up. Acting on fear often ends up prompting you to sell low, buy high and take unnecessary overall losses in your portfolio.

5. Cash is King. Those who entered the financial crisis and ensuing bear market with a safety net (6 to 12 months of expenses and up to two years for retirees) were aptly rewarded. The bear can come at any time and if you had ample emergency reserves, you were able to refrain from selling assets at the wrong time and/or from invading retirement accounts.

Strong Jobs Report Puts Fed in a Quandary

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The US economy added a much stronger than expected 242,000 jobs in February and the two previous months were revised higher by 30,000, pushing up year-over-year job creation to a solid 2.67 million. The unemployment rate remained at 4.9 percent, the lowest level since February 2008. The report puts the Federal Reserve in a quandary for its upcoming policy meeting. With job creation averaging 228,000 over the past three months and the labor force increasing by 555,000 in February and by 1.5 million in the last three months, the participation rate rose to a 15-month high of 62.9 percent. According to Capital Economics, the report shows that “remaining labor market slack is getting eaten up very quickly.”

If the central bankers are in fact “data dependent,” then the strong jobs report, along with rising core inflation (the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the core PCE price index, was up 1.7 percent in January from the prior year), would add to the rationale for increasing the fed funds rate by another quarter of a percent in March.

But by now we know that the Fed likes to err on the side of caution. Officials are likely to cite some negatives from the February jobs report as a rationale for doing nothing in March. Chief among the concerns would be the drop in average earnings in February, which translated into a 2.2 percent annualized increase—that’s down from 2.5 percent in the previous month — and average weekly hours worked, which fell sharply to 34.4, from 34.6.

Part of the issue on wages may be the quality of jobs created in February. Big gains in retail and food and drinking establishments contributed to the weakness. Additionally, although the broader unemployment rate (U-6), fell to 9.7 percent, that is still about 1.5 percent ABOVE the precession level.

Bond investors put the likelihood of a March rate hike at essentially zero, believing that the slowdown in global growth will prompt the central bank to do nothing in a week and a half. But if there is continued improvement in the labor market and inflation marches towards the Fed’s desired 2 percent pace, the central bank may by eyeing April or June for the next increase.

MARKETS: HAPPY ANNIVERSARY! I hate to bring you back to a scary time, but seven years ago this week; US stock markets plunged to their worst levels of the entire bear market of 2008-2009. Although the entire financial system almost went over the cliff in September and October of 2008, it wasn’t until March 9, 2009 that stocks hit rock bottom. On that day, the Dow closed at 6547; the S&P 500 fell to 676; and the NASDAQ was at 1268. Time may not heal all wounds, but it certainly has helped investors...

  • DJIA: 17,006 up 2.2% on week, down 2.4% YTD
  • S&P 500: 2000 up 2.7% on week, down 2.2% YTD
  • NASDAQ: 4717 up 2.8% on week, down 5.8 % YTD
  • Russell 2000: 1081, up 4.3% on week, down 4.8% YTD
  • 10-Year Treasury yield: 1.88% (from 1.77% a week ago)
  • Apr Crude: $35.92, up 9.6% on week, up 37% from the 13-year low in Feb
  • Apr Gold: $1,270.70, one-year high
  • AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $1.81 (from $1.74 wk ago, $2.46 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD: A few key speeches by Fed officials could provide the last clues before the central bank’s March policy meeting. All eyes will be on the ECB—it is expected that Draghi & Co will provide more stimulus to the ailing European economy.

Mon 3/7:

3:00 Consumer Credit

Fed Governor Lael Brainard and Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer speak

Tues 3/8:

6:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism

Weds 3/9:

10:30 EIA Petroleum Status Report

Thursday 3/10:

ECB Policy Meeting

Friday 3/11:

8:30 Import and Export Prices

#261 Tax Prep Boot Camp with Ed Slott

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Ed Slott CPA is a nationally recognized IRA expert, television personality and best-selling author who has dedicated his life to educating Americans on saving for retirement and the intricacies of IRAs.  He was named “The Best Source for IRA Advice” by The Wall Street Journal and is the author of numerous best-selling books. His web site www.IRAHelp.com. He started our conversation with an overview of what has changed for this year's tax filing season (not too much) and then explained why well-prepared taxpayers should not be afraid of an audit. (NOTE: Ed says that the key to the entire  tax preparation process is to keep flawless records and documentation throughout the year!)

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Ed also focused on the need for retirees to shift gears in retirement. While there may be some lucrative opportunities, there are also challenges/minefields, like those thorny stealth taxes, which can trip us up.

The old favorites include the whopping 50 percent penalty for not taking your required minimum distribution (RMD) and not making estimated tax payments, but last year's change about IRA rollovers is also causing a new headache among some retirees.

As much as everyone complains about paying taxes, Ed says that tax rates are still the lowest they have been in years. That means that now could be a good time to move funds from tax-deferred vehicles, like 401 (k)s and IRAs into tax free Roth IRAs. Ed also noted that the very best retirement strategy is to work as long as you can. Extra income can prevent you from dipping into your nest egg; with earned income, you can continue to make Roth and spousal Roth IRA contributions (though once you turn 70 1/2, you can NOT make traditional IRA contributions); you may be able to delay your RMDs from your company-sponsored retirement plan; and most importantly, working longer will help you combat the reality of longevity!

Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer in the World and the worst LinkedIn User. Here's how to contact us:

  • Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE 

Home Selling Tips

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As the real estate market continues to heal and prices rise, more Americans are considering a home sale this spring. Before you jump in, there are a number of factors to consider. Beyond the obvious question of where you will live next, it is important to weigh the tax implications of a sale -- you may be on the hook for capital gains taxes on primary home sale profits that exceed $500,000 for couples and $250,000 for individuals. Check out IRS Publication 523, Selling Your Home, for rules and worksheets. Also note that if you are hoping to downsize, you should carefully research your options. Many retirees have found that the purchase price for a smaller, but newer house or condo with desirable amenities, costs more than the sale proceeds received from the sale of their larger homes. If you are ready to take the plunge and to list your home, the most important thing to know is that setting the right price is essential. The first three weeks of a home’s entrance on the market are the most critical for creating interest and attracting buyers. Realtors note that buyers often dismiss a listing that is “old and stale”, which means that the longer the home stays on the market, chances are the selling price will be lower, both in absolute dollars and as a percentage of list price. The corollary to overpricing is not recognizing when you need to reduce the price. Generally speaking, if there hasn’t been a bite for three to four weeks, it’s probably time for a price cut.

In both instances of setting the price and knowing when to reduce it, you hopefully will lean on your realtor. That’s why engaging a good one is so important. In addition to asking friends and family for referrals, make sure that you invite three agents to create a comparative marketing analysis. Be sure to find a realtor who has experience with your neighborhood and price range. During the realtor interview process, you will see which of these professionals has leapt into the digital age, with a variety of ways to reach potential buyers. You may want to ask for the marketing plan in writing, so that the agent is on the hook.

Your realtor will also help you prepare the house for sale. First impressions matter, so identify the important home improvements that must occur before the open house. If you haven’t done so in a while, you will probably have to paint the house, replace the broken windows, clean or replace old carpets, cut the lawn, plant the flowers and tend to the garden. Even the small stuff counts, so make sure all light bulbs in the house are working, remove all clutter from closets and surface areas, fix leaky faucets, re-caulk the showers and tubs. If all of this prep sounds like too much work, you can hire someone to “stage” your home, which takes the process to a more professional level. Some sellers, especially those with older homes are choosing to schedule a pre-inspection for their own benefit. While this increases the costs associated with the sale, it may identify a potential problem earlier in the process.

As potential customers show interest, don’t thwart their progress by making it hard for them to see your house. Avoid putting too many restrictions on showing times that may encourage potential buyers to move on to the next home in their price range. If you are fortunate enough to get a bid, your realtor to skillfully and calmly handle the negotiations. Your reactive or emotional responses can impede the process or worse, kill a deal.

 

5 Retirement Mistakes to Avoid

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Some retirement mistakes are out of our control. For example, you may decide to call it quits amid a terrible recession, which can upend all of the best calculations in the world. But there are plenty of missteps that we can easily avoid, with just a bit of attention and planning. Here are my top 5 Retirement Plan Mistakes to Avoid. 1. Withdrawing instead of Rolling Over: During the recession, many were forced to take withdrawals from their retirement accounts to survive. Unfortunately, there are still too many workers who leave their jobs, cash out plan assets and pay a tax penalty, instead of rolling over the funds into another retirement account. Cash-outs are most prevalent among younger workers, the ones who would most benefit from keeping the money in a tax-deferred retirement account.

Plan administrators usually automatically withhold 20 percent of the balance and sends that amount to the IRS. In addition to federal and state income tax, investors younger than 59½ who cash out have to pay a 10 percent early withdrawal penalty. The potential result: Cashing out $50,000 in 401(k) savings may leave just $35,000 in cash. And regardless of the age, the retirement saver who withdraws plan assets no longer gets the compounded growth the savings would have occurred in the account.

2. Not Rebalancing: The old “set it and forget it” mentality can be problematic, because it can ensnare you in one of the classic retirement plan mistakes: Not rebalancing on a periodic basis (quarterly, biannually or annually). It has gotten easier to complete this task, because a lot of plans now have an auto-rebalance option. A side benefit of using this feature is that it can help take emotions out of the investment process, essentially forcing you to buy low and sell high.

3. Not Diversifying/Owning too Much Company Stock: You know that you shouldn’t put too many eggs in one basket. But some participants don’t realize how much overlap they may have among their retirement funds. It’s far more important to diversify among asset classes (stocks, bonds, commodities and cash) than in the total number of funds. Additionally, if your company stock is an option in your plan, limit your exposure to five percent of your total investment holdings. Sure, the stock may be awesome now, but do you really need to risk your retirement on the company’s performance? Since many companies match in their stock, it is incumbent on you to keep an eye on your allocation…or use that auto-rebalance!

4. Choosing High-Fee Mutual Funds: One way to increase your return without risk is to reduce the cost of investing. If your plan offers index funds, you may be able to save for retirement at a fraction of the cost of managed funds. If your plan is filled with expensive funds, gather your co-workers and lobby your boss to add low-cost index funds to your plan.

5. Tapping Retirement Funds to Pay Down a Debt: Workers sometimes dip into retirement funds to whittle away their outstanding credit card balances and other bills. While the IRS does allow for hardship withdrawals in certain instances, pulling money from retirement accounts should be a last resort, due to the aforementioned fees and taxes. Additionally, many workers who are over 59 ½ are tempted to use retirement assets to pay down a mortgage as they approach retirement. The biggest risk in doing this is that you may deplete your liquid assets to eliminate a debt on a non-liquid one.

Leap Day for Investors

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Leap Day (Feb 29) occurs every four years, so will this year’s be more like 2012, when the US economy grew by 2.3 percent or the more ominous 2008, when it contracted by 0.3 percent? I’m guessing that it will be a 2012 kind of year. To recap, anxiety over a global growth slowdown, a precipitous slide in oil, an increasing US dollar and a potentially over-aggressive Federal Reserve has increased the recession chatter this year. The latest round occurred last week, after it was reported that world trade in 2015 dropped to the lowest level since the financial crisis, due in large part to the slump in China and other emerging economies.

Even with a slight revision higher, Q4 US growth was at a still-paltry 1 percent annualized pace, close enough to zero to make even the most ardent bull nervous. But according to economist Joel Naroff, “It is hard for the U.S. economy to fall into recession if the consumer is spending and guess what, that is happening. Consumption was strong in January and it was across the board. Solid gains were posted for durable and nondurable goods as well as services.  More importantly, households can keep up the pace, as income growth was robust.”

There will be fresh data on the labor market, when the government releases the February employment report. The consensus sees an uptick in job creation to 185,000 from January’s lower than expected 151,000. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 4.9 percent and with labor market conditions tightening (jobless claims remain low and job openings are high); hourly wages should rise by 2.6 percent from the prior year. If that’s the case, then consumers should keep spending at a moderate clip, which would help propel growth in the first quarter to at least a 2 percent annualized pace.

Despite the economy’s middling progress, it’s hard to see a widespread recession developing in the near term. As a reminder, the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee is the organization that keeps track of business cycles. While there is no fixed definition of economic activity, the Committee draws on various measures of broad activity, which Morgan Stanley has defined as “The Four D’s”:

  • Deceleration: Every classical business cycle slows before it contracts, so look for a pronounced slowdown first. While Q4 looked weak, there is ample evidence that there will be a recovery in Q1.
  • Diffusion: The weakness must be widespread across industries. Outside of energy and manufacturing, activity in the rest of the economy appears to be OK
  • Depth: Broad indicators such as employment, income, production and sales need to contract by at least 1.5 percent from their cyclical peaks.
  • Duration: The NBER looks for a period of at least six months of contraction in the economy to be convinced that the episode was a recession

MARKETS: US stock indexes have rallied more than 6 percent from their lows reached on Feb. 11, narrowing year-to-date declines.

  • DJIA: 16,640 up 1.5% on week, down 4.5% YTD
  • S&P 500: 1948 up 1.6% on week, down 4.7% YTD
  • NASDAQ: 4590 up 1.9% on week, down 8.3% YTD
  • Russell 2000: 1037, up 2.7% on week, down 8.7% YTD
  • 10-Year Treasury yield: 1.77% (from 1.61% a week ago)
  • Apr Crude: $32.78, up 3.2% on week
  • Apr Gold: $1,223, down 1% on week
  • AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $1.74 (from $1.72 wk ago, $2.37 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD:

Mon 2/29:

9:45 Chicago PMI

Tues 3/1:

Dollar Tree

Motor Vehicle Sales

9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index

10:00 ISM Mfg Survey

10:00 Construction Spending

Weds 3/2:

8:15 ADP Private Jobs

Thursday 3/2:

Costco

8:30 Productivity and Costs

9:45 PMI Services Index

10:00 Factory Orders

10:00 ISM Non-Mfg Survey

Friday 3/3:

8:30 Feb Employment Report

#260 How to Change Careers

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Career Expert Caroline Ceniza-Levine, author of the new book "Jump Ship: 10 Steps to Starting a New Career" and co-founder of Six Figure Start, joins us to discuss how to contemplate a big change in your work life. Caroline, a former classical pianist is no stranger to extreme career changes, but cautions that there are specific steps to take before giving your notice.

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Caroline also outlined how best to use LinkedIn, why each of us needs to think about branding and how networking can be your friend.

Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer in the World and the worst LinkedIn User. Here's how to contact us:

  • Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE 

#259 Revolutionizing Fin Services with Betterment CEO Jon Stein

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Betterment CEO and founder Jon Stein is revolutionizing the way financial services are delivered and consumers are the beneficiaries of his vision. Jon founded Betterment, a so-called "Robo-Advisor"  in 2008 in order to help consumers invest the way they should, rather than trying to beat the market. Jon notes that "We tend to think we’re better than average, on average. We intuitively think we can outperform. The whole brokerage and investment industry has grown to serve these irrational behaviors—and as a result, they don’t serve the individual consumers’ best interests. I started Betterment to re-invent the investing industry." Boy, has he ever--Betterment allows users to rationally approach investing by seeking the best return (factoring costs) for the least risk.

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It was great to have Jon on show, especially after appearing on CBS This Morning to discuss "When is the Right Time to Hire a Financial Advisor".

While Betterment started as an automated platform to help investors create a customized asset allocation plan, it has now evolved into an advice-driven organization. (For those who want a deep-dive on the evolution of financial services, check out this LinkedIn webcast, where Jon appeared with other leaders in the industry.) If I sound like I am fawning over Jon's business, I AM! After years in this business, it is terrific to see people like Jon (and Hart Lambur of Open Folio, Hardeep Walia of Motif Investing and Mitch Tuchman of MarketRiders) shaking up the industry. Jon also discussed how the Department of Labor's new rule, which will require any advisor managing retirement assets to be held to the Fiduciary standard, is likely to force the industry to FINALLY put clients first.

Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer in the World. Here's how to contact us:

  • Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE