mortgage rates

Investor Survival Kit

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While many are saying that the U.S. has never defaulted on its obligations, that’s not exactly the case. Historians say that technical default has occurred five times in the country's history. In 1779, the government was unable to redeem the continental currency issued during the Revolutionary War; in 1782 the Colonies defaulted on the debt they had assumed to pay for the war; in 1862, the Union failed to redeem dollars for gold at terms stated by the debt contracts; in 1934 FDR defaulted on the debt issued to finance World War I; and in 1979, a bureaucratic snafu resulted in missed interest on some small bills. But you get the point -- default is rare and is certainly unprecedented in the age of electronic trading and an interconnected globe. In the unlikely event that politicians can’t pull it together, stocks could plunge; short-term interest rates could spike; business and consumer confidence would falter, which would cause an increase in unemployment and potentially push the economy into recession.

Since you can’t control any of those dramatic events, here are seven things you can do to prepare for the worst…while of course hoping for the best!

1. Review and replenish emergency funds: Make sure that you have an emergency fund of 6-12 months worth of expenses. If you have less than that amount, you may want to sell securities from your taxable portfolio and replenish.

2. Rebalance your investment and retirement accounts: Do not arbitrarily sell all of your investments or cash out of your retirement and college plans! But if you have not rebalanced your accounts in a while, this week would be a perfect time to do so. Make sure that your allocation matches your time horizon and your risk tolerance and don’t forget to sell company stock that has increased to more than 5 percent of your portfolio’s value.

3. Get ready to accelerate the pay down of adjustable rate loans: From mortgages to credit cards, if the worst-case debt ceiling scenario plays out, interest rates on these types of loans could rise. That may mean that you will need to refocus your available cash flow to paying down higher interest debt.

4. Lock in loans/obtain a commitment letter: Analysts are not sure whether or not longer-term interest rates will rise because of the debt ceiling. There is some evidence that when the world is in turmoil, investors have traditionally flocked to the 10-year treasury, which has kept a lid on rates. That said, since most believe that interest rates are headed higher generally, it would be advisable to secure a fixed loan now. If you have government-guaranteed student loans, you can consolidate them with the Federal Direct Loan Program.

5. Review the terms of small business loans: During the financial crisis of 2008, many small companies learned a bitter lesson: their business loans were callable. Find out the exact terms and conditions of any loans and try to work with your bank to build a contingency plan.

6. Say goodbye to German beer and French cheese: Any destabilizing event like the debt ceiling fiasco could push down the value of the U.S. dollar, making foreign imports more expensive. In those trying times, comfort yourself with Vermont cheddar and domestic beer and wine!

7. Don’t Panic: Time and time again, it has been proven that those who react emotionally at the wrong time often pay the price over the long-term. As the British say, “Keep calm and carry on.”

Week ahead: Jump in rates unlikely to derail housing

The nation’s housing market, which was at the epicenter of the financial crisis, will be in focus this week. Existing and new home sales should increase, adding to the momentum seen throughout the year. There was some concern about the real estate recovery after last week’s weaker than expected housing starts report, but most of the decline was related to the volatile multi-family sector. Over the first half of 2013, multi-family starts are up over 33 percent from 2012, and single-family starts are up 20 percent. To put these advances into perspective, at 836,000, housing starts are still 45 percent below the 1.5 million per year average from 1959 through 2000. In other words, we still have a ways to go before things return to “normal”.

Will the increase in mortgage rates snuff out the recovery? The 30-year mortgage rate has risen from 3.6 percent two months ago to 4.7 percent last week. Despite a 3.1 percent decline in the last week of June, applications for new mortgages edged up 0.1 percent from May, and future activity numbers indicate that the housing recovery should remain intact. However, if rates move much higher from where they currently stand, the calculation of renting versus buying may cause some would-be purchasers to keep paying the landlord.

One area of housing that is likely to slow down is price increases. The Case-Shiller 20-City index was up 12 percent from a year ago and in a back to the future moment, RealtyTrac said that home flipping had made a sort-of comeback. The number of homes purchased and subsequently sold again within six months spiked 19 percent in the first half of 2013 from a year ago and by 74 percent from the first half of 2011. The report showed that real estate investors made an average gross profit of about $18,391 on single family home flips in the first half of the year, a 9 percent gross return on the initial purchase price.

However, most housing experts don’t believe that house prices can continue increasing at double-digit rates for too much longer. With more people expected to list homes and higher rates keeping institutional activity muted, the national housing market should remain in recovery, not bubble, mode.

Markets The current bull market is 1593 days old, which is the fifth longest in history according to Bespoke Investment Group.

  • DJIA: 15,543, up 0.5% on week, up 18.6% on year
  • S&P 500: 1692, up 0.7% on week, up 18.6% on year (4th consecutive weekly gain, new closing high)
  • NASDAQ: 3587, down .35% on week, up 18.8% on year
  • 10-Year Treasury yield: 2.49% (from 2.59% a week ago)
  • Aug Crude Oil: $108.05, up 2% on week
  • Dec Gold: $1294, up 1.2 on week
  • AAA Nat'l average price for gallon of regular Gas: $3.67

THE WEEK AHEAD: Earnings, housing and a big vote for Dell…

Mon 7/22:

Kimberly Clark, McDonald’s, Netflix, Texas Instruments

8:30 Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index

10:00 Existing Home Sales

Tues 7/23:

AOL, Apple, AT&T, UPS

Weds 7/24:

Boeing, Ford, Caterpillar, Pepsi, Visa

Dell shareholder vote on $24.4B buyout offer

10:00 New Home Sales

Thurs 7/25:

3M, Amazon, GM, Hershey, DR Horton, Pulte, Zynga

8:30 Weekly Jobless Claims

8:30 Durable Goods Orders

Fri 7/26:

9:55 Consumer Sentiment