Tired Stock Markets and Fed Fatigue

I'm tiredTired of playing the game Ain’t it a crying shame

-Lili Von Shtupp (Madeline Kahn) in “Blazing Saddles

One thing we can all agree on this political season is that everyone seems tired -- tired of the shouting, the rhetoric and the divisiveness. In some ways, the stock market also feels a bit tired right now, as investors continue to suffer from Fed fatigue. After enduring a correction early in the year, then charging to all-time highs over the summer, the rally seems to have lost some steam lately. Perhaps the slowdown is for good reason, at least from the consumer’s point of view: with the labor market tightening, US companies are paying higher wages, which eats into their profit margins and hurts stock performance. Most Americans would likely happily endure so-so mid-single digit returns from stocks in their retirement plans, in exchange for fatter paychecks.

Conversations about the Federal Reserve also seem a little wearing these days. The Fed’s impact on risk assets, like stocks, seems to wax and wane from week to week, with most now believing that the central bank will raise rates by a quarter of a percent at the mid-December meeting. By that time, investors will know the outcome of the election and will also have a bit more data to confirm that economic growth can withstand a Fed move. This week, the government will release one of the last few important reports before that meeting: third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

After a dreadful first half of the year, when the economy expanded by just about one percent, growth has accelerated in the second half of this year, as the effects of a stronger dollar and lower oil prices have started to fade. Economists expect that the first estimate of third quarter growth will rebound to an annualized rate of 2.5 percent, due in large part to a surge in exports and specifically soybean exports. Depending on how the Bureau of Economic Analysis handles the spike and then likely reversal in the subsequent quarter could impact the headline. When it’s all smoothed out, we should expect that growth for all of 2016 will be the same, tired 2 percent or so that we have seen over the past few years.

In addition to GDP, which will be revised in a month, the Fed will also chew on the following before the December FOMC: two employment reports (11/6 and 12/4), two Personal Income and Spending reports, which contain the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, PCE Index (10/31 and 11/30) and one more Consumer Price Index report (11/17). Presuming that these reports are mostly in line with trends, the Fed should hike in December. After that, I'm afraid to tell you that we're likely to endure another round of exhaustive speculation about the pace of rate hikes…in other words, be prepared for the 2017 version of Fed fatigue.

• DJIA: 18,145, up 0.04% on week, up 4.1% YTD
• S&P 500: 2141, up 0.4% on week, up 4.8% YTD
• NASDAQ: 5257, up 0.8% on week, up 5% YTD
• Russell 2000: 1218, up 0.5% on week, up 7.2% YTD
• 10-Year Treasury yield: 1.74% (from 1.80% week ago)
• British Pound/USD: 1.2227 (from 1.2188 week ago)
• November Crude: $50.85, up 1% on week
• December Gold: $1,267.70, up 1% on week
• AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $2.23 (from $2.25 wk ago, $2.22 a year ago) Prices have climbed above their year-ago levels for the first time in over two years (7/13/14)

THE WEEK AHEAD:

Mon 10/24:

Visa

8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Tues 10/25:

Apple, AT&T, General Motors, Pandora

9:00 FHFA House Price Index

9:00 S&P Case-Shiller HPI

10:00 Consumer Confidence

Weds 10/26:

Coca-Cola, Groupon, Texas Instruments

10:00 New Home Housing Sales

Thursday 10/27:

Amgen, Deutsche Bank, Ford, Sirius XM

8:30 Durable Goods

10:00 Pending Home Sales

Friday 10/28:

Exxon Mobil, Hershey, MasterCard

8:30 Q3 GDP – 1^st Estimate

8:30 Employment Cost Index

10:00 Consumer Sentiment

#294 Why We're Crazy About Money

Why are we so crazy about money? That was the question we asked guest, psychologist Lisa Damour. The reason, according to Lisa, is that feelings and money get knotted up and become hard to untangle.  Lisa directs Laurel School’s Center for Research on Girls, writes a column for the New York Times’  Well Family online report, serves as a regular contributor to CBS News, and is the author of the New York Times best seller, Untangled: Guiding Teenage Girls Through the Seven Transitions into Adulthood. She also maintains a private psychotherapy practice, consults and speaks internationally, and is a faculty associate of the Schubert Center for Child Studies and a clinical instructor at Case Western Reserve University.

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One of the toughest parts about our relationship with money is that it becomes the vehicle to express so many other emotions. In our conversation, Lisa discusses how to make peace with intergenerational trauma, how to break the habit of enabling adult children and how to talk to our family members about the difficult subject of money.

Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer/Music Curator in the World. Here's how to contact us:

• Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE 

• Send an email: askjill@jillonmoney.com 

• Tweet us: @jillonmoney and @MTalercio

Recessions are like Pornography

Obviously the election has drowned out every other topic, including economics and markets. That’s why you could be forgiven for not noticing a Wall Street Journal survey of economists, which found that the odds of a recession occurring within the next four years at nearly 60 percent. Before you add recession to your list of worries, you should know that this is hardly a bold prediction. The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of when recessions begin and end. Despite the oft-referred to rule of thumb that a recession occurs when there are two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, the Dating Committee does not have a fixed definition of a recession. In this way, defining a recession is like defining pornography: you know it when you see it!

The Committee examines and compares the behavior of various measures of broad activity: real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales, in order to determine the highs (peaks) and lows (toughs) of the business cycle. “A recession is a period between a peak and a trough…during a recession, a significant decline in economic activity spreads across the economy and can last from a few months to more than a year.”

According to NBER, the so-called Great Recession began in December 2007 and lasted until June 2009. At 18 months, it was the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months. Since 1945, there have been eleven recessions, which lasted an average of 11.1 months.

So what should we make of the current prediction of a recession within the next four years? The current expansion, which began in July 2009, has lasted 87 months through September. That may seem like a long time, but it is not crazy. The previous three expansions (1982-1990, 1991-2001 and 2001-2007) lasted 92, 120 and 73 months respectively. That said, making a prediction that we could see a recession over the next four years does not seem particularly like going out on a limb.

And yet, economists are not particularly good at predicting when a recession might actually occur. In his book The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't, Nate Silver interviewed Jan Hatzius, the chief economist of Goldman Sachs, to find out why so many economic predictions miss the mark. “Nobody has a clue. It's hugely difficult to forecast the business cycle. Understanding an organism as complex as the economy is very hard.” The reason it is so hard is that statistics can be noisy, the economy is always changing and the data on which forecasts are based can be flawed.

MARKETS:

• DJIA: 18,138, down 0.6% on week, up 4.1% YTD
• S&P 500: 2133, down 1% on week, up 4.4% YTD
• NASDAQ: 5214, down 1.5% on week, up 4.1% YTD
• Russell 2000: 1212, down 2% on week, up 6.8% YTD
• 10-Year Treasury yield: 1.80% (from 1.72% week ago)
• British Pound/USD: 1.2188 (from 1.2243 week ago)
• November Crude: $50.32, up 1.1% on week (fourth consecutive week of gains, longest weekly winning streak since April.)
• December Gold: $1,255.50, up 0.2% on week
• AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $2.25 (from $2.26 wk ago, $2.30 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD:

Mon 10/17:

Bank of America, IBM, Netflix

8:30 Empire State Mfg Survey

9:15 Industrial Production

Tues 10/18:

Goldman Sachs, Intel, J&J, Yahoo

8:30 CPI

10:00 Housing Market Index

Weds 10/19:

American Express, eBay, Morgan Stanley

8:30 Housing Starts

2:00 Fed Beige Book

Thursday 10/20:

Microsoft, Verizon

8:30 Existing Home Sales

10:00 Leading Indicators

Friday 10/21:

General Electric, McDonald’s

#293 Estate Planning: Tackling an Emotional Topic

In honor of National Estate Planning Awareness Week, we invited estate attorney Virginia Hammerle on the show to break down how to tackle the often emotionally fraught topic. Hammerle says instead of diving in head-first, it is helpful “to focus on an isolated issue, like titling of a bank account or making a beneficiary designation,” which can lead to a broader discussion of family finances and estate planning.

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Once you break the ice and start the process, figure out what you are trying to accomplish and try not “to get stuck on the next fifty years,” says Hammerle. “Every estate plan can be changed and in fact should be revisited every few years." Here are the basic documents that you will likely draft:

• Will: A legal document that ensures that your assets are passed to your designated beneficiaries, in accordance with your wishes. In the drafting process, you name an executor, who is the person or institution that oversees the distribution of your assets. If you have minor children, you need to name a guardian for them.
• Letter of Instruction: This may also contain appointment of someone who will ensure for the proper disposition of your remains. This is especially important if you are choosing something that is contrary to your family’s tradition.
• Power of Attorney: Appointment of someone to act as your agent in a variety of circumstances, like withdrawing money from a bank, responding to a tax inquiry or making a trade.
• Health Care Proxy: Appointment of someone to make health care decisions on your behalf if you lose the ability to do so
• Trusts: Many have either revocable (changeable) or irrevocable (not-changeable), depending on family and tax situations. For 2016, the first $5.45 million of an estate is exempt from federal estate taxes. If an estate is above the threshold (or twice that for married couples), a revocable trust may be suitable to consider.

Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer/Music Curator in the World. Here's how to contact us:

• Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE 

• Send an email: askjill@jillonmoney.com 

• Tweet us: @jillonmoney and @MTalercio

Elections and Markets

With a month to go before Americans hit the polls, it’s time for the quadrennial exercise of predicting how elections will impact stock prices. Let’s start with a disclaimer: as a long-term investor, you should not make changes to your portfolio in an effort to outfox the tried and true investment strategy of identifying your personal goals and objectives; creating and sticking to a diversified asset allocation plan, which incorporates low cost index funds; and rebalancing two to four times a year. That’s why the following should come under the category of “fun with facts and figures,” rather than any prescriptive advice as to how to reallocate your portfolio. That said, there are going to be a lot of articles and news segments, not to mention political commercials discussing which candidate is better for your money, the markets and the economy. Let’s start with the “Presidential Election Cycle Theory”, which posits that regardless of whether Republican or Democrat becomes the leader of the free world, US stock markets are weakest in the year following the presidential election, improves in the second year, peaks in the third year and then is weak in the fourth year. The Presidential Election Cycle Theory has held up even better for two-term presidents.

But like almost every market theory (“The January Effect”, “Sell in May and Go Away”), there are always exceptions to the rules. While the theory played out through most of the twentieth century, it has been less reliable lately. In fact, the last four years has disproved the Election Cycle Theory. In the first year of President Obama’s second term, the Dow saw an impressive 27 percent return and then 7.5 percent in year two. Last year, which was supposed to be the strongest of the cycle, the blue chip index dropped by 2 percent. The Dow is up 5 percent through the first three quarters of the year.

How does the President’s party affect the stock market? Data show that since World War II, the average compound annual growth rate for stocks is 9.7 percent under Democratic Presidents and 6.7 percent under Republicans. The analysis can be carved up lots of different ways, depending on a split Congress and chances are you can find the combination that supports the way you want to vote.

But a recent academic study, “What to Expect When You’re Electing,” finds that “There is no systematic difference between Republicans and Democrats” when it comes to steering the direction of the stock market. What does matter is the direction of interest rates: the stock market tends do better when rates are going down than when they are rising. Given that the Fed is likely to restart its interest rate hike campaign, that could mean that whoever occupies the Oval Office will preside during a period when the stock market retreats.

Maybe we are looking at this backwards: According to InvesTech Research, the market may be a better indicator of the presidential election than visa versa. Generally speaking, if the stock market is up in the three months leading up to the election, the incumbent party usually wins. Losses over those three months tend to mean a new party will take control. In the 22 president elections since 1928, exceptions occurred in 1956, 1968 and 1980. In other words, the S&P 500 has an 86.4 percent success rate in forecasting the election.

I know you wanted a simple answer: Trump or Clinton, but in the end, isn’t it better to know that party affiliation has far less to do with your portfolio’s performance than bigger, macro economic trends? Instead of trying to outsmart the Mr. Market, my advice remains simple: address what is within your control, by creating a financial plan.

Employment Report: The Labor Department reported that the US economy added 156,000 jobs in September, slightly lower than expectations. The unemployment rate edged up from 4.92 percent in August (rounded down to 4.9) to 4.96 percent (rounded up to 5) in September, due to a 444,000 increase in the labor force. As a result, the participation rate climbed to a six-month high of 62.9 percent.

The broader unemployment rate (U-6), which includes people who want full-time jobs but can only get part-time jobs, remained at 9.7 percent. According to economist Joel Naroff, talking about broad unemployment “is meaningless.” The problem, he says, is that businesses have likely permanently shifted to hiring more part-timers than in the past, which makes comparing today’s U-6 rate with the pre-recession rate of about 8.3 percent, pointless. “People might want to work full-time, but if businesses don’t want full-timers, there is nothing workers can do. It is not the economy that has caused the rate to be high, but business hiring decisions.” 

MARKETS:

• DJIA: 18,240, down 0.4% on week, up 4.7% YTD
• S&P 500: 2164, down 0.7% on week, up 5.4% YTD
• NASDAQ: 5292, down 0.4% on week, up 5.7% YTD
• Russell 2000: 1236, down 1.2% on week, up 8.9% YTD
• 10-Year Treasury yield: 1.72% (from 1.62% week ago)
• British Pound/USD: 1.243 (from 1.2973 week ago) Trading in pound saw a dramatic, though short-lived 10 percent plunge fall on Friday, attributable to computer-based program trading.
• November Crude: $49.81, up 3.3% on week
• December Gold: $1,258.60, down 6% on week
• AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $2.26 (from $2.22 wk ago, $2.31 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD: Quarterly corporate earnings begin this week - analysts expect a sixth consecutive year-over-year drop. The estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -2.1 percent, led lower by energy and materials, according the FactSet. If the energy sector is excluded, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 would improve to 1.3 percent from -2.1 percent.

Mon 10/10: Columbus Day Banks closed, stock markets open, bond market closed

Tues 10/11:

Alcoa

6:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism

Weds 10/12:

10:00 JOTS

2:00 FOMC Minutes

Thursday 10/13:

8:30 Import/Export Prices

Friday 10/14:

Citigroup, Wells Fargo

8:30 PPI

8:30 Retail Sales

12:30 Janet Yellen speaks

#292 Encore with Generational Expert Cam Marston

Amid the Jewish holidays (Happy 5777!) and Mark's big Asia adventure, we are re-airing our great interview with generational expert, Cam Marston. Can Gen-X and Millennials get along? Are Boomers and Gen-Y finding love?  Cam explains how to better communicate across generations. We'll be back with a brand new show next week!

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Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer/Music Curator in the World. Here's how to contact us:

• Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE 

• Send an email: askjill@jillonmoney.com 

• Tweet us: @jillonmoney and @MTalercio

#291 Going Off Script to Get More with Entrepreneur Brian Wong

Entrepreneur Brian Wong is a paradox: a whip smart twenty-something business owner, who is a really nice guy; a wonky tech enthusiast, who probably wishes he could be in the NHL, rather than be a brand expert; and an author who provides lots of tips, but acknowledges "There is no one way. There are lots of ways." Brian joined the show to discuss his new book, "The Cheat Code: Going Off Script to Get More, Go Faster, and Shortcut your way to Success."

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Brian, the self-proclaimed extroverted introvert, is an incredibly grateful man. He has learned quickly that "truly golden relationships start when your goal is not to force anything but to share some of yourself with people, learn from them." Here are some of his pearls of wisdom:

• Know your strengths
• Tune out stop trying to be in touch with everybody all the time (in other words, be careful how you use social media)
• Stop comparing yourself to others
• Get out more...There's no substitute for meeting people and gaining new experiences.

Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer/Music Curator in the World. Here's how to contact us:

• Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE 

• Send an email: askjill@jillonmoney.com 

• Tweet us: @jillonmoney and @MTalercio

Economic Growing Pains

While it was no surprise that the Fed took no action at last week’s FOMC meeting, there was something interesting contained in the officials’ economic projections. The central bank lowered its longer run expected growth rate from 2 percent to 1.8 percent. This downward revision started in 2012, when the Fed expected growth to be 2.4 percent, which at the time, seemed a far cry from the average pre-crisis annual growth rate of about 3 percent. 1.8 percent seems pretty rotten, but to judge it more effectively, historic data can help. From 1985-2015, GDP averaged about 2.75 percent, but during the post-technology boom through last year (2001-2015), growth averaged…1.8 percent. This more recent slowdown is at the core of the argument among the economic wonks: The doom and gloomers (think former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers) say that the US economy is plagued by “secular stagnation,” where individuals and companies are not tempted to invest, savings’ pile up and growth slumps. Amid this environment, central banks try to nudge participants to do something with their cash by slashing interest rates and buying bonds, but over time, these policy measures lose their oomph.

The other side, led by former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, argues that weaker economic growth is due to temporary cyclical and special factors and eventually the economy will revert back to its old ways. For the past year and a half, Bernanke has argued that the US economy is working its way out of this “cyclical stagnation,” proof of which can be seen in the improving labor market, and “the availability of profitable capital investments anywhere in the world should help defeat secular stagnation at home.”

Hindsight will determine which side is right, but the bottom line, according to Paul Ashworth at Capital Economics, “is that GDP growth has been disappointing.” The lowered Fed projections are simply an acknowledgement of what we have been experiencing on the ground. This week, the government will release the final estimate of second quarter growth, which is expected to edge up to a still-paltry 1.3 percent from the previous reading of 1.1 percent.

The lowered estimate of growth is good to remember, especially when Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump predicts that his tax cut plan will boost economic growth of 3.5 to 4 percent, more than two times what the Fed believes will occur and well-above the 2.75 percent seen from 1985-2015. Trump cited 4 percent growth last week, after doing so earlier this month. As a point of reference, the US economy has not seen 4 percent growth since the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000.

FAFSA UPDATE: The Free Application for Federal Student Aid form (“FAFSA”) is the gateway to education money and it is now available on October 1, three months earlier than in previous years. Given how expensive it is to attend college, here’s a mind blowing statistic from NerdWallet: High school graduates left $2.7 billion in FREE federal grant money on the table over the last academic year, because they did not complete the form…for more on this topic, check out: College Money for the Taking!

MARKETS:

• DJIA: 18,261, up 0.8% on week, up 4.8% YTD
• S&P 500: 2164, up 1.2% on week, up 5.9% YTD
• NASDAQ: 5305, up 1.2% on week, up 6% YTD
• Russell 2000: 1254, up 2.5% on week, up 10.5% YTD
• 10-Year Treasury yield: 1.62% (from 1.69% week ago)
• British Pound/USD: 1.2973
• November Crude: $44.48, up 2% on week
• December Gold: $1,341.70, up 2.4% on week
• AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $2.21 (from $2.19 wk ago, $2.29 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD:

Mon 9/26:

10:00 New Home Sales

10:30 Dallas Fed Survey

Tues 9/27:

9:00 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

10:00 Consumer Confidence

Weds 9/28:

8:30 Durable Goods Orders

Thursday 9/29:

8:30 GDP

9:00 Corporate Profits

10:00 Pending Home Sales Index

Friday 9/30:

8:30 Personal Income and Spending

9:45 Chicago PMI

10:00 Consumer Sentiment

Saturday 10/1

FAFSA Form Available (3 months earlier than in the past)

College Money for the Taking

Given how expensive it is to attend college, here’s a mind blowing statistic: High school graduates left $2.7 billion in FREE federal grant money on the table over the last academic year. According to an analysis from NerdWallet, the primary reason that families are missing on this money is because they are not completing the most important step in the process: completing the Free Application for Federal Student Aid or FAFSA. FAFSA is the gateway to education money and it is now available on October 1, three months earlier than in previous years. FAFSA is used to determine how much students and their families will receive in terms of college grants, scholarships and loans, which is why it is so important that families take the time to work through it.

For years, people have complained that the form is arduous, but the Department of Education says, “The FAFSA takes most people 21 minutes to complete.” OK, maybe 21 minutes undershoots it -- it’s probably closer to an hour, once you gather all of the documents that you need. But now that the IRS has created a way to send your tax information seamlessly to the Department of Education, the process has become a bit easier. (The IRS Data Retrieval Tool automatically fills in the online FAFSA form with the necessary tax information).

I asked Kelly Peeler, founder & CEO of NextGenVest, a service that helps students navigate the financial aid and student loan processes, what we are overlooking in the college money treasure hunt. “The biggest mistake by far is that families do not submit their FAFSA because they think they might not qualify for aid or they don't want to share tax information or Social Security numbers.” Even those that complete the form are sitting on it too long. Peeler notes that there needs to be a sense of urgency, “because families will have a higher likelihood of receiving more financial aid if they submit their correct forms earlier.”

While states, colleges, and the federal government each have their own financial aid deadlines, some states have a limited pool of funds that may run dry if you wait until the last minute to apply. To maximize your potential aid, Peeler advises submitting the FAFSA as early as possible after October 1, even though the 2017–18 deadline for federal aid is June 30, 2018.

To those who say they won’t qualify for financial aid, “so why bother going through the drudgery of doing it?” The Department of Ed clearly states, “contrary to popular belief, there is no income cut-off when it comes to federal student aid.” More importantly, you never know how your situation might change. Some of the factors affecting rewards include: a change in family income, the student’s year in school, the cost of attendance and multiple kids in college at the same time. So even if you did not get money last year, you could still be eligible for other types of aid, like work-study and low-interest loans.

Finally, if you are worried that you have not yet determined which colleges are on “wish list”, know that you can still file your FAFSA as long as you list at least one school. The Dept of Education advises that you “add every school you’re considering, even if you haven’t applied or been accepted yet. If you’re on the fence about a particular school, add it anyway. Doing so will hold your place in line for financial aid in case you end up applying for that school. You can also add or remove schools to your FAFSA later.”

#290 Stop Trying to Beat the Market: Use Index Funds

Stop trying to beat the market, because you can't. That sage advice comes from investment legend Charley Ellis, who has been keeping tabs on the debate between active and passive investment management for five decades. In his new book “Index Revolution: Why Investors Should Join it Now” Charley argues that indexing is the most efficient and cost effective way to achieve your long term financial goals. He states it clearly: “The stunning reality is that most actively managed mutual funds fail to keep up with index funds.”

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Ellis founded Greenwich Associates in 1972, creating a financial industry consulting firm that would become a go-to resource for the biggest fund managers and Wall Street firms. One of his many claims to fame is that he was the first industry insider to publicly proclaim that most active portfolio managers do not keep up with the benchmarks they are trying to beat, and that investors are better off in low-cost index funds. That admission occurred in 1975, when he wrote a timeless article, titled The Loser’s Game. In the article, he explained the quandary that active managers face and quantified their disappointing results. It was the same year that Vanguard launched the first index mutual fund. In addition to writing and talking about the industry, Charlie serves on as an Investment Committee member of Rebalance IRA.

Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer/Music Curator in the World. Here's how to contact us:

• Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE 

• Send an email: askjill@jillonmoney.com 

• Tweet us: @jillonmoney and @MTalercio