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Freelance Nation

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The US has become a freelance nation. Whether out of necessity (reduced hours/loss of job) or desire (flexibility/control over hours), more than 53 million Americans earn income from work that’s not a traditional 9-to-5 job – that amounts to 1 in 3 workers, according to Sara Horowitz, the founder and Executive Director of Freelancer’s Union. Horowitz notes that while the trend of Americans piecing together an income stream through more than one source is more than two decades old, in the past few years, there has been an acceleration, because “online work platforms, such as Uber, Airbnb, Etsy, and Elance, that connect workers directly to consumers and clients are completely reimagining the work relationship.”

In many respects, freelancing can be the perfect answer for those who are seeking to boost income both during their work lives and to supplement Social Security during retirement. The allure sometimes goes beyond money: a survey by staffing firm Modis found that more than 50 percent chose flexible work hours as the perk they most desire. Flexibility can mean a variety of things, from working at home to not having to be in the office at the same time each day.

If you are considering starting a business or dipping your toe into the freelance pool, one of the best ways to do so is to experimenting while you have a job. More than a quarter of the total number of freelancers–14 million workers–are moonlighters, who have a full time position. About a third of them say they would like to quit and freelance full-time.

Whether you are just starting out or trying to make the leap to full time, you need to treat the endeavor like a business, not as a side business or a hobby. That means you should create a business plan that explains the new venture and your background; what differentiates your business from competitors; identifies your target customer; and includes a competitive analysis of organizations/other freelancers in your space. You will also need to project the numbers, to determine if any start-up financing will be required.

You also need to be disciplined about how time you will devote to your side business: it has to be enough to judge whether or not it could be self-sustaining, but not too much as to drain you and cause you to underperform at your real job. By spending 10 to 20 hours a week, you will probably get a sense of whether or not you like doing it and how much work it takes to run your own business.

If the experiment goes well, you may choose to simply keep that extra income stream and not make the jump to becoming a full time freelancer. But if you are ready to go it alone, be sure to beef up emergency savings so you have a year of expenses stashed away; consider the cost of purchasing your own health insurance through either through a professional network, like the Freelancer’s Union or through HealthCare.gov; establish a separate business checking account; consider creating an LLC; and be sure to have a system to pay your taxes.

Finally, you don’t have to do this by yourself. There are great, free resources available to help you develop your idea into an ongoing concern. The Small Business Administration offers advice and information on starting or growing a business; and financial assistance for new or existing businesses through guaranteed loans made by area bank and non-bank lenders. There are also special resources devoted to women and veterans. For more information, go to SBA.gov and search for your city.

Jobs Report Stinks: No Fed Rate Hike in June

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The May jobs report was a stinker. The economy added just 38,000 jobs, the fewest since September 2010. Even adding back the 37,000 jobs lost in the telecom sector, which was primarily due to the recent Verizon strike, May was a dismal month for hiring. Adding to the downbeat news, revisions of March and April reduced jobs by 59,000, pushing down average monthly job creation for 2016 to 150,000, well behind the more than 200,000 thousand gains seen over the past few years. Although the year-over-year change in May was an impressive 2.39 million jobs, the recent trend is worrisome: Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 116,000 per month. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell to 4.7 percent, the lowest level since November 2007, but that was due to more people dropping out of the workforce, not because a slew of wannabe employees got jobs. Unfortunately, the weakness was widespread. Manufacturing lost 10,000 jobs, construction shed 15,000 jobs and temporary help fell by 21,000.

Despite recent comments by Fed officials extolling the improvement in the economy, the weakness in this report likely means that the central bank will not raise rates when it meets in a week and a half. It also calls into question the health of the overall recovery in the second quarter, which is estimated to accelerate by about 2.1 - 2.3 percent on an annualized basis.

In the first quarter, we could attribute the paltry 0.8 percent GDP to plunging oil prices, a stronger U.S. dollar and weakness in China. But those factors have largely turned around: crude has soared from $27 per barrel to nearly $50; the dollar has stabilized after rising sharply against other major currencies in late 2014 and early 2015; and although Chinese growth remains on the worry list, there has been a simmering down of tensions.

The economic expansion celebrates its seventh birthday this month, making it the fourth longest recovery since World War II. Although the recovery has been sluggish—GDP has averaged just over two percent a year, the labor market has shown more impressive progress, until recently. Whether or not this is the beginning of the end for the robust gains in job creation is unknown at this point. What’s seems knowable is that the Fed is not going to raise rates amid the current environment.

Last week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that the central bank would likely to raise interest rates “gradually and cautiously” because raising them too quickly could trigger a downturn to which the Fed may have limited tools to respond. Given this report, it would seem that caution would be appropriate at the June meeting.

MARKETS:

  • DJIA: 17,817 down 0.4% on week, up 2.2% YTD
  • S&P 500: 2000 flat on week, up 2.7% YTD
  • NASDAQ: 4942 up 0.2% on week, down 1.3% YTD
  • Russell 2000: 1164, up 2.5% on week, up 2.5% YTD
  • 10-Year Treasury yield: 1.7% (from 1.8% a week ago)
  • July Crude: $48.62, down 1.4% on week
  • August Gold: $ 1,242.90, up 2.2% on week
  • AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $2.35 (from $2.32 wk ago, $2.76 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD:

Mon 6/6:

Janet Yellen speaks

Tues 6/7:

8:30 Productivity and Costs

3:00 Consumer Credit

Weds 6/8:

10:00 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

Thursday 6/9:

Friday 6/10:

10:00 Consumer Sentiment

2:00 Treasury Budget

#274 Cleaning out the In-Box

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It's that time of the year...when all of your questions need attention! In addition to hearing your voices, we also love your e-mails. Unfortunately, they can start to pile up awfully quickly. That's why from time to time, we need to plough through them. If we went too fast, just nudge us again with another note. We also want to hear about your wedding guest etiquette!

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If you missed the great episode with James Altucher, check it out here.

Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer/Music Curator in the World. Here's how to contact us:

  • Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE 

Ground Rules for Boomerang Children

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You may have heard about "boomerang children," which refers to this generation's proclivity to flee the nest, only to return a few years later like a boomerang.  A recent report from Pew Research has quantified the power of the boomerang generation: for the first time ever, more young adults are living with their parents than with a spouse or partner. In 2014, 32.1 percent of adults, ages 18 to 34, had returned to their parents’ home, while 31.6 percent were residing with a spouse or partner in their own household. This is quite a turnaround from 1960, when 62 percent was living with a spouse/partner and just 20 percent with their parents. The trend is tied to a few factors, one of which is postponement of marriage. The median age of first marriage has risen steadily for decades, as many couples live together before walking down the aisle. Still, many more Americans are eschewing the traditional coupling arrangements seen in the past -- the overall share of young adults either married or living with an unmarried partner has substantially fallen since 1990.

If postponement of marriage is one factor, so too is the economic reality that many families have faced over the past decade. The severity and length of the recent recession caused adult children to flounder and many had to take lower paying jobs than they had expected when they were in school.

Even now, as college graduates are enjoying the best job market since the recession, many are choosing a more financially prudent life, where they can accumulate assets, pay down debt and secure their financial futures. Most parents would applaud such parsimony; but the reality of having the kids return home is not always the easiest transition for the older generation.

Communication is key - parents need to outline their expectations. Will your child do housework, contribute to groceries and bills, and pay rent while living home? How long will the arrangement last? If the child is unemployed, what must he do to show that he is actively looking?

For the child, it is tough to feel like you have any say in this situation, but you must discuss your concerns. You are an adult now, so remind your parents that you will behave like one and hope to be treated as such. One friend tried to impose a curfew on her 24-year-old daughter, harkening back to the old “My house, my rules!” mantra. Guess how well that went over with the younger generation?

After both sides openly and honestly discuss the ground rules, agree to revisit the plan in three months. There obviously can be some flexibility, but to make sure you are both on the same page, put the agreement in writing.

Finally, I found some tips from The American Grandparents Association, which provided a few terrific reminders for multi-generational households:

  1. Make room. It’s not the amount of space, but the respect for independence and privacy. Make sure all members of the family have a spot they can call their own where they won't be disturbed.
  2. Make Time. Some families hold regular meetings, others leave notes/text. Whole direct, face-to-face contact to catch up each day is preferable, there are many ways to stay connected – just agree what works for your family.
  3. Treat your family like your friends. You treat your friends with patience, listen to what they have to say, provide advice/feedback only when asked and you give them the benefit of the doubt. Try to treat your family with as much consideration and multigenerational living will go much more smoothly.

#273 Exploring a Minimalist LIfe with James Altucher

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I recently listened to a podcast that prompted me to say aloud, “I need to interview this guy!” Thankfully in the social media age, I was able to tweet the host, James Altucher to let him know: Apr 30, 11:29am via Twitter for iPhone

@jaltucher I just listened to your minimalist podcast and it blew me away...would you consider being a guest on my podcast?

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From that tweet, “Jill on Money” history was made…for the first time in over five years of doing the show, we decided to have just one guest – James Altucher – for the ENTIRE show.

Even jaded Mark fell in love with James--here's a selfie we took in the studio.

Mark, Jill and James

If you are not familiar with James, you are in for a treat. He is a serial entrepreneur, investor, trader, writer and now podcaster. What drew me to James was his authenticity and willingness to talk about not just success, but also his failures. As you hear about his life, you may think, “How can I be more like this guy?” If so, you should read James’ book, “Choose Yourself”. You should also check out this post about minimalism as well as these posts that I think will be of great interest:

How to Be the Luckiest Guy on the Planet in 4 Easy Steps

How I screwed Yasser Arafat out of $2mm (and lost another $100mm in the process)

It’s Your Fault:

I’m Guilty of Torturing Women

The Girl Whose Name Was a Curse

The 100 Rules for Being a Good Entrepreneur:

The Easiest Way to Succeed as an Entrepreneur.

Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer/Music Curator in the World. Here's how to contact us:

  • Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE 

Career Advice for Class of 2016

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It’s that time of year when I am asked to offer career advice to recent college graduates. I always laugh when I think about the statement my dad (the options trader) gave me, before starting my first post-collegiate job as a commodities trader: “Do your job and don’t screw up!” Let me couch dad’s words in a kinder way: You, young graduate, think that you have much to offer your benevolent employer. In fact, you offer very little except potential. That said, Caroline Ceniza-Levine, career coach and co-founder of SixFigureStart® says that recent grads would be wise to start their jobs before they physically arrive in the office. “Try to learn as much as you can about the company and the industry before day one and when you do start, your first goal should be to make a good first impression and the best way to do so is to do what is asked of you -- and more.”

I know that you may be of the generation that seeks a great work-life balance, but as a former boss of a certain generation, I can tell you that in the beginning (at least 90 days and probably up to a year), you would be well-served if the balance were to tip more towards work. You also need to ask questions, but don’t make the mistake of seeking constant feedback, which can quickly translate into your boss thinking that you are needy. Instead, make sure that you check in on a regular basis--weekly, monthly or quarterly, depending on what you and your boss agree upon.

Your overall goal is to gain the reputation as being energetic, diligent and collaborative. How can you become known as a team member? MIT professor Alex Pentland notes, “The best team players connect their teammates with one another and spread ideas around.” Ideal team players are “not necessarily extroverts, although they feel comfortable approaching other people. They listen as much as or more than they talk and are usually very engaged with whomever they’re listening to. We call it ‘energized but focused listening.’” Considering that the vast majority of people you encounter like talking more than listening, just being present, focused and listening will help distinguish you from your co-workers.

Listening is also important when it comes to the dreaded networking process. Ceniza-Levine’s partner, Connie Thanasoulis-Cerrachio, says that the networking rule of thumb is “to give twice as much as you receive,” because too many professionals use networking as a way to ask for something, rather than seeing it as a long-term, mutually beneficial relationship of give and take – with emphasis on the give!

She warns that you don’t want to be seen as an “ask-hole,” always asking people for something, but tone deaf to how annoying that can seem. Although in the digital age, connection can seem as easy as a click, I can’t emphasize enough the value of physical interactions to help foster these relationships. According to Pentland, “the most valuable form of communication is face-to-face. The next most valuable is by phone or videoconference, but with a caveat: Those technologies become less effective as more people participate in the call or conference. The least valuable forms of communication are e-mail and texting.”

And if you are unhappy in the beginning, Ceniza-Levine says don’t be too quick to jump ship. It may be growing pains and by sticking to it, you may find that you actually like it. If the job itself isn’t a good fit, you may find another position within the company. And if it isn’t, there’s probably just as much to learn from a good job as a bad one.

MARKETS: Happy Belated Anniversary! On May 21, 2015, the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high of 2130.82. Since then, the index is down 3.5 percent.

  • DJIA: 17,500 down 0.2% on week, up 0.4% YTD
  • S&P 500: 2052 up 0.3% on week, up 0.4% YTD
  • NASDAQ: 4769 up 1.1% on week, down 4.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000: 1109, up 0.7% on week, down 2.2% YTD
  • 10-Year Treasury yield: 1.85% (from 1.7% a week ago)
  • June Crude: $47.75, up 3.3% on week
  • June Gold: $$1,252.90, down 1.6% on week
  • AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $2.28 (from $2.22 wk ago, $2.73 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD: Just five more trading days until the long Memorial Day weekend.

Mon 5/23:

Tues 5/24:

Best Buy, Intuit Hewlett Packard Enterprise

10:00 New Home Sales

11:00 NYFRB Household Debt and Credit Q1 2016

Weds 5/25:

Tiffany, Express, HP

8:00 International Trade

9:00 FHFA House Price Index

Thursday 5/26:

Abercrombie & Fitch, Burlington Stores, Dollar Tree, Chico’s FAS, Costco, GameStop

8:30 Durable Goods Orders

Friday 5/27:

8:30 Q1 GDP-2nd Estimate (1st estimate=+0.5%)

8:30 Corporate Profits

10:00 Consumer Sentiment

10:00 Pending Home Sales

10:30 Janet Yellen speaks at Harvard

#272 How to be a Smarter and Richer Mom

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Financial journalist, author and speaker Kimberly Palmer joins the show to discuss her new book "Smart Mom, Rich Mom" (order it here!). Kimberly says that the biggest problem families face is not preparing for the financial impact of kids. That’s amazing considering that raising a child costs $250,000-- not including college! How will you pay for it?

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Kimberly is the Features Editor of AARP and throughout her career, she has been covering the issues that confront women of her own generation. Our conversation highlighted many of the themes of her new book, including how women are navigating the financially challenging career/parenting years.

"Smart Mom, Rich Mom" is filled with relevant stories, checklists, action steps and planning tools to help moms (and dads!) prepare financially for parenthood, like balancing college saving and retirement saving, despite increased expenses; planning for unexpected events, like a layoff or illness; and adopting healthy habits--and making hard decisions--that pay off in abundance.

Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer/Music Curator in the World. Here's how to contact us:

  • Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE 

Are American Shoppers Spent?

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Are American shoppers spent? That’s what it felt like when some of the nation’s big retailers released their earnings last week. Macy's reported disappointing sales and slashed its guidance for the year; Kohl's saw a surprising drop in comparable sales and logged its first slide in net sales in six quarters; Nordstrom’s results were impacted by lower-than-expected sales; and J.C. Penney also reported sales that were lower than expected. All of these stocks got clobbered, falling to multi-year lows and as a result, the department-stores group slumped 16 percent on the week. Those results put investors on edge, ahead of the government’s release of monthly retail sales. But then something miraculous happened: the report was better than expected! Sales were up a seasonally adjusted 1.3 percent, the largest increase in over a year. Even removing auto and gas sales, the numbers were good enough to prompt a number of economists to raise their estimates for second quarter growth.

So why did the stock market tumble, despite the seemingly good news? Perhaps it had something to do with a generalized anxiety about the ability for consumers to continue to spend without more robust wage gains. Although Americans have been willing to shell out big bucks for what they see as necessities (cars and technology), they have been far more prudent elsewhere, seeking bargains at discount chains.

The behavior is likely the result of the double whammy of two booms and busts (dot-com and housing/financial crisis) over the past 15 years. The toll on middle income Americans (defined as those earning $42,000 to $126,000 in 2014 dollars, for a household of three) has been enormous. According to a Pew Research Center report issued last December, middle-income Americans have fallen further behind financially in the new century. Adjusted for inflation the median income for a household of three fell from almost $83,500 in 1999 to just under $76,000 in 2014. Pew followed up that report with a new analysis, which found that from 2000 to 2014 the share of adults living in middle-income households fell in 203 of the 229 U.S. metropolitan areas.

With incomes dropping, consumers may be discovering something that behavioral economists have been discussing for some time: experiences pay greater dividends than things. When digging into the details of the retails sales report, it is clear that digital shopping continues to show strength, growing 10.2 percent on the year. But consumers are increasingly shifting away from goods and more towards services and experiences, like going out to dinner, taking vacations and purchasing premium media services.

MARKETS: Indexes continue to trade in a range, as investors bounce between optimism about the general direction of US growth and concerns that the rest of the world will eventually drag down the world’s largest economy with it. The broad market, as measured by the S&P 500, just barely remains in positive territory for the year.

  • DJIA: 17,535 down 1.2% on week, up 0.6% YTD
  • S&P 500: 2046 down 0.5% on week, up 0.1% YTD
  • NASDAQ: 4717 down 0.4% on week, down 5.8% YTD
  • Russell 2000: 1102, down 1% on week, down 2.9% YTD
  • 10-Year Treasury yield: 1.7% (from 1.78% a week ago)
  • June Crude: $46.21
  • June Gold: $1272.70
  • AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $2.22 (from $2.21 wk ago, $2.68 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD:

Mon 5/16:

8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index

Tues 5/17:

Home Depot, TJX

8:30 Housing Starts

8:30 CPI

9:15 Industrial Production

10:00 E-Commerce Retail Sales

Weds 5/18:

Cisco, Target, Salesforce.com, Lowe’s

2:00 FOMC Minutes

Thursday 5/19:

Wal-Mart, Gap

8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey

8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index

10:00 Leading Indicators

Friday 5/20:

Campbell Soup, Deere

10:00 Existing Home Sales

Photo by Flickr User drinksmachine

#271 Will the Market Crash if Trump is Elected?

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Investors spend a lot of time worrying about the market implications of the political season. Guest Taylor Tepper, who is a writer at Money, says that's a mistake. Despite all of the worries about a Trump presidency, Taylor says that the stock market will NOT crash if Donald Trump were elected president. That's just one of the topics we covered in a great conversation that ranged from market implications of elections to the national debt, to a lightning round on how to reform the U.S. tax code.

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I met Taylor through my work at Money, where we have shot some great videos, including this one on the Department of Labor Fiduciary rule, this one about working in retirement and the one about bonds can be riskier than you think, which is when I discovered that Taylor likes this money and investing stuff as much as I do!

Here are Taylor's two recent articles that we reference during our interview:

"No, the Stock Market Won’t Crash if Trump Is Elected President"

Thanks to everyone who participated this week, especially Mark, the Best Producer/Music Curator in the World. Here's how to contact us:

  • Call 855-411-JILL and we'll schedule time to get you on the show LIVE 

Why You Stink at Investing

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Did you panic when markets tumbled earlier this year? Do you feel better now that they have stabilized? If so, you aren’t alone. The hardest part of being an investor – even a long-term one – is coming to terms with a terrible truth: we stink at investing because we are human beings. In fact, the very cognitive behaviors that distinguish human beings from other forms of life, can lead us astray. I recently spent time with Dan Egan (check out Dan's appearance on my radio show), the Director of Behavioral Finance and Investments at Betterment, who explained that traditional economists believe that incentives, along with logical thought processes, will ultimately dominate our decisions. Behavioral economists “acknowledge that human beings are not always rational and want to help people make better decisions by using their emotions to their advantage.”

As an example, he cited retirement plan enrollment. Since the inception of defined contribution plans, traditional economists thought that the incentive of tax relief to retirement plan participants would be enough to encourage them to start saving money for the future. All they would have to do to enroll in a plan was to check a box. Easy, right?

But that’s not what happened. Many workers simply went along with the default option of not enrolling. To help boost participation, behavioral economists lobbied to change the default to be automatic enrollment and if workers wanted out of the plan, they would have to proactively check the box. Egan says that subtle change helped retirement plan participation soar “from about 20 percent of eligible employees to over 80 percent!”

Behavioral economists want to make it easier for us to do virtuous things, like saving for retirement and harder to do harmful things. Egan contends, “Doing the right thing should be effortless,” and even the small act of checking a box requires a bit of effort.

Another problem inherent with retirement saving is myopia, or our tendency to focus on the near-term, rather than the long term. When confronted with the choice of doing something fun today, like going on vacation with your family or using available funds to help secure a comfortable retirement decades in the future, guess which one tends to win out? Egan calls this the “tyranny of the here and now. To combat it, people need to identify with their future selves and to really think about what kind of life they hope to be leading years from now.”

When it comes to managing our money, being a human being can be downright dangerous. We suffer from two biases when markets are rising: overconfidence in our own abilities to pick winners and optimism, which convinces many investors that they can outperform the market.

Conversely, when markets are diving, we suffer from loss aversion (My dad used to refer to this as the investor line in the sand: “If my portfolio goes below X, I’m getting out!”), which can prompt us to withdraw capital at the worst possible time. When everyone else is selling, there is also a herding effect, when we do what everyone else does. And of course, many investors micromanage their portfolios, when according to Dan, “you will make more money the less you muck around with your accounts.”

All of these behaviors help explain why average stock investors lag the S&P 500 index by 1-3 percent annually and active traders often lag by more than 4 percent annually. Companies like Betterment are using behavioral science to help people overcome their very natures by automating the process of saving and investing. Maybe with a little prodding, we can improve our results.