Thanksgiving Week Holiday Shopping

American consumers, start your engines! This weekend kicked off the holiday shopping season and here is what you need to know. Despite the rapid growth of digital sales (the government said that overall E-commerce jumped 15.1 percent in the third quarter from a year ago), most shopping occurs in physical stores. In fact, last quarter, E-commerce accounted for just 7.4 percent of overall retail sales. But these numbers are somewhat misleading, because overall retail sales include the big-ticket automobile category, as well as gas and groceries. According to consultancy Strategy&, these groups are responsible for almost half of total retail sales. Without them, online’s penetration of its “addressable market” is closer to 16 percent.

But that’s not the whole story: Deloitte found that nearly two-thirds of in-store retail sales will be influenced by digital interactions this holiday season, as consumers smarten up and conduct research on their desktops, tablets and phones and consult shopping apps to land the best deals.

Speaking of those bargains, shopping early can pay off. According to Adobe Digital research, online prices should hit rock bottom on Thanksgiving Day, where consumers will snag an average discount of 27 percent. So if you are one of the 45 percent of consumers who can sneak away in between football games and family time to click away, you’ll be rewarded.

If shopping on Thanksgiving -- even from the privacy of your home -- doesn’t sit well with you, try the Monday before Thanksgiving, which has been a good option to beat the rush and still get deals. Adobe also found that the best time to buy depends on both discounts and product availability, especially for hot-selling gifts. In fact, this weekend is the best time to shop for toys and Monday is good for electronics, though the entire week leading up to Thanksgiving will deliver bargains.

Before you hit the stores, don’t forget to download a few apps to help: Red Laser, Snip Snap and Coupon Sherpa can help you score the best deals and find extra savings and Slice keeps tabs of your online purchases by monitoring your email and extracting online order details. The app also notifies you about price drops on recent purchases and helps you get a refund when possible.

Finally, a quick word about security…when shopping in a brick and mortar location, the safest choice is cash at the checkout counter, but that too has risk, because who really wants to shop with wads of cash? For convenience, credit cards are the safest option because issuers usually provide protection against stolen, damaged or lost items. Additionally, if credit card information is stolen or compromised, your liability is minimized, whereas a debit card thief could drain your bank account before you notice.

And during this time, carefully review your credit card statements as soon as you receive them to make sure there aren’t any unauthorized charges. If there is a discrepancy, call your bank and report it immediately. If you think that your information has been compromised or that you have been a victim of identity theft, go to the FTC website for step-by-step instructions about what you need to do.

MARKETS: The bulls had visions of Sugar Plum fairies this week, as stocks reversed most of the previous week’s losses.

• DJIA: 17,823 up 3.4% on week, up 0.2% YTD
• S&P 500: 2,089 up 3.3% on week, up 1.5% YTD (best week in almost a year)
• NASDAQ: 5,106 up 3.6% on week, up 7.8% YTD
• Russell 2000: 1175, up 2.5% on week, down 2.5% YTD
• 10-Year Treasury yield: 2.26% (from 2.28% a week ago)
• Dec Crude: $40.39, down 0.9% on week
• Dec Gold: $1,076.30, down 0.4% on week (fifth straight weekly drop)
• AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $2.09 (from $2.18 wk ago, $2.84 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD:

Mon 11/23:

8:30 Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index

10:00 Existing Home Sales

Tues 11/24:

8:30 Q3 GDP (2^nd Estimate)

9:15 Case Shiller Home Price Index

10:00 Consumer Confidence

Weds 11/25:

8:30 Personal Income and Spending

8:30 Durable Goods Orders

10:00 New Home Sales

10:00 Consumer Sentiment

Thursday 11/26: THANKSGIVING DAY-ALL US MARKETS CLOSED

Friday 11/27: BLACK FRIDAY

1:00 U.S. Markets close early

Holiday Sales Season 2014 Kicks Off

American consumers: start your engines! This weekend kicks off the holiday shopping season and with just 33 days to go before Christmas, retailers and economists alike have visions of sugarplums dancing in their heads. Back in October, the National Retail Foundation predicted holiday sales in November and December (excluding autos, gas and restaurant sales) would increase 4.1 percent to $616.9 billion, a full percentage point higher than 2013’s actual 3.1 percent increase during that same time frame and above the 2.9 percent growth over the past 10 years.

Other estimates have been similarly upbeat. Deloitte’s annual holiday forecast suggests sales will increase 4 to 4.5 percent, boosted by a 13 percent increase in consumer spending across all categories to $1,299 this holiday season. Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that it will be a jolly holiday season, helped by an increase in personal income and wilder availability of credit. And research from Capital Economics shows that with employment rising and a fall in gas prices boosting real incomes, “this holiday shopping season could be the best in nine years”.

Regardless of the actual results, what is clear is that the nature of the holiday season is changing. NRF notes that holiday sales represent approximately 19.2 percent of the industry’s annual sales of $3.2 trillion, but for some retailers, the two-month season can account for almost 40 percent of total annual revenues. Perhaps that is why so many big names have extended the season by opening on Thanksgiving Day and even earlier - Wal-Mart started its holiday promotions last Friday!

With a full week to shop, the influence of Black Friday and Cyber Monday are expected to wane. That said, digital is where the growth lies. Shop.org expects 2014 online holiday sales to increase between 8 and 11 percent over last holiday season to as much as $105 billion. But that’s not the whole story: Deloite found that 50 percent of in-store retail sales, or $345 billion, will be influenced by digital interactions this holiday season.

For those inclined to get a jump on shopping, research from Adobe Digital has found that online prices will hit rock bottom on Thanksgiving Day, where consumers will see an average discount of 24 percent. (The average item will be 20 percent off during Thanksgiving week; prices will increase the Tuesday after Cyber Monday.) The second best day to shop online is the Monday before Thanksgiving.

Finally, despite the pain of the past credit bubble bursting, Americans are still willing to go into hock during the holiday season. According to a survey commissioned by NerdWallet and conducted by Harris Poll, families with household incomes between $50,000 and $75,000 will take an average of 2.6 months to pay off holiday debt, whereas families with household incomes below $50,000 will take an average of 2 months.

MARKETS: Stocks reached a milestone last week: For the first time since the dotcom bubble (14 years), the S&P 500 hit a new all-time, inflation-adjusted high.

• DJIA: 17,810, up 1% on week, up 7.4% YTD
• S&P 500: 2063, up 1.2% on week, up 11.6% YTD (45^th record close of 2014)
• NASDAQ: 4712, up 0.5% on week, up 12.8% YTD
• Russell 2000: 1172, flat on week, up 0.9% YTD
• 10-Year Treasury yield: 2.31% (from 2.31% a week ago)
• January Crude Oil: $76.51, up 0.9% on the week (snaps a seven-week losing streak)
• December Gold: $1197.70, up 1% on the week
• AAA Nat'l average price for gallon of regular Gas: $2.83 (from $3.24 a year ago; AAA projects 46.3 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home during the Thanksgiving weekend, the highest volume since 2007 and a 4.2 percent increase over 2013. Almost 90 percent will celebrate the holiday with a road trip.)

THE WEEK AHEAD: Despite the Thanksgiving holiday, it will be a big week for economic data.

Mon 11/24:

8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index

10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

Tues 11/25:

8:30 Q3 GDP – 2^nd Estimate (Initial reading: +3.5%)

9:00 Case-Schiller Home Price Index

10:00 Consumer Confidence

Weds 11/26:

8:30 Weekly Claims

8:30 Durable Goods Orders

8:30 Personal Income and Spending

9:55 Consumer Sentiment

10:00 New Home Sales

Thurs 11/28: Thanksgiving Day: ALL US Markets closed

The OPEC oil cartel meets in Vienna: Most experts say that even if the group were to agree on an export cut, it is unlikely to have a meaningful effect on prices, due to increased production by non-members

Fri 11/29: Black Friday

1:00 US markets close early