CBS This Morning: Black Friday Kickoff

As the holiday shopping season kicks off with Black Friday, I joined CBS This Morning to discuss the business of Black Friday and why brick-and-mortar stores are not dead.

CBS This Morning: Avoiding Holiday Debt

More than 56 percent of consumers have already started their holiday shopping, and about 48 million Americans are still paying off their debt from the last holiday season. CBS News business analyst Jill Schlesinger joins "CBS This Morning" to discuss how to to avoid overspend this holiday season.

More than 56 percent of consumers have already started their holiday shopping, and about 48 million Americans are still paying off their debt from the last holiday season. I joined CBS This Morning to discuss how to to avoid overspending this holiday season.

Tips for Cyber Monday and Giving Tuesday

With Black Friday in the rear view window, it’s time to focus on Cyber Monday, a holiday first mentioned in a NRF press release in 2005. At that time, the organization noted that the sharp increase in web traffic after the Thanksgiving weekend occurred because “consumers may have faster or more secure Internet connections at work and choose to shop there.” Despite having faster connections eleven years later, consumers are still lured by Cyber Monday deals. Shoppers spent $3.19 billion last year on the day and that number is expected to rise this year - according to Adobe Digital Insights, it is expected to be the largest online shopping day in history.

If you are planning to click away, here are Network World’s 12 Tips for Safer Shopping:

• Only download or buy apps from legitimate app stores.
• Suspect apps that ask for too many permissions.
• Check out the reputation of apps and particularly the app publisher.
• Only enter credit card info on secure shopping portals.
• Avoid using simple passwords, and use two-factor authentication if you can.
• Be alert for poisoned search results when using search engines to find products.
• Don’t install software that sites require before you can shop.
• Don’t use free pubic Wi-Fi to make purchases.
• Be suspicious of great deals you learn about via social media or from email addresses you don’t recognize.
• Turn off location services while shopping to minimize the potential personal data that could be compromised.
• Make sure the connection to e-commerce sites is secured (HTTPS).
• Double check the validity of the SSL certificate for the site.

In addition to Cyber Monday, the holiday weekend now extends to Giving Tuesday. Last year, over 700,000 people raised $116 million in over 70 countries and expectations are for even larger numbers this year, because post-election charitable giving has already spiked dramatically. Even before the election, Americans were known for their generosity. The U.S. is the world’s second most generous nation in the world (after Myanmar), according to the Charities Aid Foundation (CAF).

Americans gave $373.25 billion in 2015 and with changes to the tax code likely to occur next year, there could be a surge in giving before the end of 2016. Financial planners and tax preparers are urging clients to step up their charitable giving this year, because deductions are likely to be less valuable or potentially go away, in the coming years.

As you rush to complete your donations, you should be aware that earlier this year, IRS Commissioner John Koskinen said “Fake charities set up by scam artists to steal your money or personal information are a recurring problem.”

To help avoid a costly mistake, here is a four-step checklist for your charitable giving.

Step 1: Confirm that the Charity is Legitimate. One of the simplest scams perpetuated by fraudsters involves using a name that seems familiar to a nationally known organization. To help taxpayers conduct research on organizations, the IRS has established an online search tool, Exempt Organizations Select Check , which allows users to search for and select an exempt organization and check certain information about its federal tax status and filings.

Remember, there’s a big difference between “tax exempt” and “tax deductible.” Tax-exempt means the organization doesn’t have to pay taxes. Tax deductible means you can deduct your contribution on your federal income tax return. Select Check allows you to find legitimate, qualified charities to which donations may be tax-deductible. Legitimate charities will provide their Employer Identification Numbers (EIN), if requested, which can be used to verify their legitimacy through EO Select Check. The IRS notes that it “is advisable to double check using a charity's EIN.”

Step 2: Research Charity’s Financial Health. Once you have confirmed that the group is legitimate, you can also see what others say about the organization by going to the Better Business Bureau’s (BBB) Wise Giving Alliance, Charity Watch and GuideStar. You will also want to know that its finances are healthy and that it is efficient, ethical and effective. Charity Navigator provides 0 to 4-star rating system, which includes a review of each charity’s fiscal performance. The site also helps you understand what portion of your donation goes to support overhead, versus goes to the cause itself.

Step 3: Determine how you will donate to the charity. You should NEVER send cash donations or wire money to someone claiming to be a charity. And do no not provide any personal or financial information until you’ve thoroughly researched the charity. If you are making a gift of appreciated securities from a taxable investment account, you will need to get information about how to send the assets-be sure to confirm all receiving account numbers.

If you are planning to send a check, your payments must be postmarked by midnight December 31^st -- just writing “December 31st” on the check does not automatically qualify you for a deduction; and pledges aren’t deductible until paid. Donations made with a credit card are deductible as of the date the account is charged, so if you are a little late in the process, you probably should stick to credit cards.

Step 4: Keep Good Records. For any cash or property valued at $250 or more, you must have a receipt (bank record, payroll deduction or written communication) identifying the organization, the date and amount of the contribution and a description of the property. For text message donations, flag the telephone bill with the name of the receiving organization, the date of the contribution, and the amount given.

MARKETS: In a holiday-shortened week, all four US stock indexes closed at new record highs and saw their third consecutive week of gains.

• DJIA: 19,152, up 1.5% on week, up 9.9% YTD
• S&P 500: 2213, up 1.4% on week, up 8.3% YTD
• NASDAQ: 5398, up 1.5% on week, up 7.8% YTD
• Russell 2000: 1347, up 2.4% on week, up 18.6% YTD (15-day winning streak)
• 10-Year Treasury yield: 2.36% (from 2.34% week ago, highest since July 2015)
• British Pound/USD: 1.2477 (from 1.2356 week ago)
• January Crude: $46.06, down 0.6% on week
• February Gold: $1,186.10, down 2.5% on week, 9-month low
• AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $2.12 (from $2.15 wk ago, $2.05 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD: The Labor Department will release the final employment report before the Federal Reserve’s December 13-14 policy meeting. Barring a very strange reading (the consensus estimate for job creation in November is 170,000 and the unemployment rate should remain at 4.9 percent) or a sudden, exogenous event, a quart-point rate increase is assumed to be a done deal.

Mon 11/28:

8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Tues 11/29:

8:30 Q3 GDP-2^nd Estimate

9:00 US/S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

10:00 Consumer Confidence Index

Weds 11/30:

OPEC Meeting in Vienna

8:15 ADP Private Payrolls Report

8:30 Personal Income and Spending

9:45 Chicago PMI

10:00 Pending Home Sales

2:00 Fed Beige Book

Thurs 12/1

Motor Vehicle Sales

9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index

10:00 ISM Manufacturing

10:00 Construction Spending

Friday 12/2

8:30 November Jobs Report

Does Black Friday Matter?

As we prepare for the retail launch of the holiday season, here’s a question worth tackling: Does Black Friday (or Gray Thursday) matter? If you’re the kind of shopper that delights in the adrenaline rush of shopping in the wee hours of the Friday after Thanksgiving, go for it. For the rest of us, it may be better to just enjoy a long weekend. Although you are likely to be barraged by offers, according to the New York Times, “the chances of snatching a great deal for a quality item are slim, largely because Black Friday is mainly designed for retailers to clear out unwanted goods, and because best-selling products rarely drop much in price.” Those warnings are unlikely to deter the throngs--Black Friday is still expected to be the Number One shopping day of the year, despite a drop off in sales estimates over the past two years.

Overall, Americans are expected to increase holiday spending, which includes all of November and December, by 3 to 3.5 percent from a year ago, according to the research firm eMarketer. Warning: don’t pay too much attention to the estimate from the National Retail Federation (NRF), which calls for a 3.6 percent increase in holiday spending in 2016. The NRF’s projections tend to overestimate sales growth because of its shaky methodology, which relies on asking consumers how much they spent last year, and how much they plan on spending this year.

With the election settled and wage growth strengthening, there could be an upside surprise to retail results this holiday season. Regardless of whether sales increase by more or less than expected, the focus will return to the growth of digital. In a report last week, the government said that overall e-commerce jumped 15.7 percent in the third quarter from a year ago, while total retail sales increased 2.2 percent in the same period. Still, most shopping still occurs in physical stores. Last quarter, E-commerce accounted for just 8.4 percent of overall retail sales.

But these numbers are somewhat misleading, because overall retail sales include the big-ticket automobile category, as well as gas and groceries. According to consultancy Strategy&, these groups are responsible for almost half of total retail sales. Without them, online’s penetration of its “addressable market” is closer to 16 percent.

The subset of digital commerce that continues to power sales is mobile. According to Adobe Digital research, in 2016, “mobile will overtake desktop for the first time in terms of driving visits to a website during the holiday season.” But consumers are using their phones more to research than to make purchases.

If you do plan to get busy this week, here are few things to keep in mind:

• Make a list of products you want to buy and start tracking their prices on Google and Amazon and then on PriceGrabber or PriceJumpon savings.com.
• The hottest gifts this season are expected to be VR devices (Oculus, PlayStation VR and HTC Vive), Pokémon, Barbie, Lego, Hot Wheels and Frozen toys, as well as Google Home and Amazon Echo.
• When you log on is important. The Monday before Thanksgiving is good for electronics; if apparel is on your list, the biggest discounts will be highest on Tuesday; and the majority of Walmart’s Black Friday deals, are available to online shoppers starting at 12:01 a.m. on Thursday. Thanksgiving Day is the best day for jewelry purchases.
• Black Friday deals: Cheap electronics, video games, DVDs, and gaming systems. And while it may not exactly be on Santa’s list, Friday may also be a good day to close a deal on a new car, as dealers seek to clear out inventory and boost sales. Cyber Monday can be ideal for toys, which are 13 percent less expensive than they were in October, according to Adobe.
• Don’t be loyal: Despite the ability to find steep discounts, 25 percent of customers will end up paying higher prices because they are loyal to a retailer.
• Download ShopSavvy, before you hit the brick and mortar stores…the app can scan barcodes and compare at other big retailers.
• Check out CNET’s Black Friday Guide, which highlights the best deals at many of the nation’s top retailers and Consumer World’s Black Friday Week Tips for Bagging a Bargain.
• Sobering reminder: The best deals always occur AFTER the holidays.

MARKETS: The post-election selloff in the bond market continued, as investors bet that the Trump administration will boost spending, cut taxes and as a result, spark an increase in inflation. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note closed at a 12-month high and logged the biggest two-week gain in 15 years. The Treasury bond market is on pace for the biggest monthly negative return since December 2009 and the overall bond market has seen the biggest two-week rout in data going back to 1990.

• DJIA: 18,868, up 0.1% on week, up 8.3% YTD
• S&P 500: 2182, up 0.8% on week, up 6.8% YTD
• NASDAQ: 5321, up 1.6% on week, up 6.3% YTD
• Russell 2000: 1315, up 2.6% on week, up 15.8% YTD
• 10-Year Treasury yield: 2.34% (from 2.12% week ago)
• British Pound/USD: 1.2356 (from 1.2593 week ago)
• December Crude: $45.54, up 5.3% on week
• December Gold: $1,208.30, down 1.3% on week, 9-month low
• AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $2.15 (from $2.18 wk ago, $2.12 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD:

Mon 11/21:

8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Tues 11/22:

10:00 Existing Home Sales

Weds 11/23:

8:30 Durable Goods Orders

10:00 New Home Sales

10:00 Consumer Sentiment

2:00 FOMC Minutes

Thursday 11/24: US MARKETS CLOSED THANKSGIVING

Large stores open:

3pm JC Penney

4pm Old Navy (some locations only)

5pm Best Buy, Toys R-Us, Macy’s

6pm Wal-Mart, Sears, Kohl’s, Target

7pm K-Mart

Large Stores Closed:

TJ Maxx, Marshall’s, Staples, Office Depot, BJs, Costco, GameStop, Lowe’s, Nordstrom’s, Neiman Marcus, Christmas Tree Shop

Friday 11/25 BLACK FRIDAY

1:00 Stock Markets close early

For Investors, Two Days Remain in 2015 (Jobs, FOMC)

Although the calendar says 33 days to go before we ring in 2016, for investors, there are exactly two days left in 2015: Friday, December 4^th and Wednesday December 16^th. Oh sure, there will be navel gazing over the results of the holiday shopping weekend. FYI, as it turned out, those door busters were a bit of a bust in brick and mortar stores, but they sure were effective in the digital arena. ShopperTrak reported that in-store traffic was down, but Adobe Digital index said consumers spent 14 percent more on Black Friday than last year and Thanksgiving online spending saw a 22 percent surge.

Regardless of the total holiday sales results, which will not be available for another month, there are far more important events ahead for the economy. Back to those two days…on Friday, the government will release the November jobs report. After a better than expected reading in October, when the economy added 271,000 jobs, the unemployment rate edged down to 5 percent and average hourly earnings increased by 2.5 percent from the previous year, hopes are high for follow through in November.

Economists predict nonfarm payrolls will rise by 190,000, with a range of 160,000-220,000. The unemployment rate will likely hold steady at 5 percent and earnings growth should slow from the quicker than expected pace in October, but is expected to show continued progress. .

If the jobs report comes in even at the low end of predictions, it would probably be enough ammunition for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its two-day meeting, which concludes on the last important day for investors, December 16^th. Janet Yellen will have two opportunities this week to pre-sell the rate hike: a speech before the Economic Club of Washington DC and testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. Although lawmakers will try to flex their muscles and attempt to prod Yellen to elaborate on the Fed’s plans, don’t expect her to give away much more than she has already stated in public.

Although these two days will be pivotal, that is not to say that there will not be volatile trading days in the month of December. As asset managers reposition their portfolios for the year-end, there is always the possibility for a low volume swing in either direction. There is also likely to be continued chatter about the narrowness of leadership in stocks. The FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google) are said to account for gains of about 60 percent this year, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite are up 1.5 and 8.3 percent respectively.

MARKETS: While you were surfing the web on Black Friday, you may have missed a 5.5 percent drop in the Chinese stock market. The plunge was attributed to a government investigation into brokerage firms, which is part of a broader legal, regulatory and anti corruption crackdown, following a year of market swoons. Even with the late-week sell-off, the Shanghai Composite is 21 percent above its calendar year nadir on August 26^th, though still remains 34 percent below its seven-year high on June 12^th.

• DJIA: 17,798 down 0.1% on week, down 0.1% YTD
• S&P 500: 2,090 up 0.1% on week, up 1.5% YTD
• NASDAQ: 5,127 up 0.5% on week, up 8.3 % YTD
• Russell 2000: 1202, up 2.5% on week, down 0.2% YTD
• 10-Year Treasury yield: 2.22% (from 2.26% a week ago)
• Jan Crude: $41.71, down 0.6% on week
• Feb Gold: $1,056.20, down 1.3% on week (lowest level in more than five years, down 45% from peak 4 years ago)
• AAA Nat'l avg. for gallon of reg. gas: $2.05 (from $2.09 wk ago, $2.79 a year ago)

THE WEEK AHEAD:

Mon 11/30:

Cyber Monday

9:45 Chicago PMI

10:00 Pending Home Sales

10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing

Tues 12/1:

Giving Tuesday

Motor Vehicle Sales

9:45 PMI Manufacturing

10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index

10:00 Construction Spending

Weds 12/2:

8:15 ADP Private Employment Report

8:30 Productivity

2:00 Fed Beige Book

Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks at the Economic Club of Washington DC

Thursday 12/3:

10:00 Factory Orders

10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

10:00 Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies before Joint Economic Committee of Congress

Friday 12/4

8:30 November Employment Report

8:30 International Trade