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Should you follow the old Wall Street adage to “Sell in May and Go Away”? You might be tempted to do so, especially with economic growth crawling at a measly 0.5 percent annualized pace in the first quarter, consumer spending decelerating for the past nine months and corporate earnings on track for a third consecutive quarter of declines—the longest streak since the financial crisis. 2016 has been a year of investor anxiety, starting with a swift Jan-Feb 10 percent stock market correction. Now that indexes have clawed their way higher, many are worried that something ominous is brewing for the summer. This week’s employment report could either fan the fear flames or tamp them down. Analysts expect that 200,000 jobs were created in April and the unemployment rate will remain at 5 percent.
If those estimates were to come in on target, they would add to the mostly upbeat data on jobs that we have seen over the past few years. According to Calculated Risk, through March, total employment was 5.3 million above the previous peak and up 14 million from the employment recession low. Last week, although the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates, it acknowledged that since its previous meeting six weeks prior, “Labor market conditions have improved.”
But the broad numbers may not paint a true picture of the employment landscape. Steve Murphy of Capital Economics notes that there has been a surge of low paying jobs in sectors like retail and leisure, while “at the same time, employment in higher-paid sectors such as manufacturing and mining has fallen back sharply. More generally, there has been a sharp deterioration in the quality of jobs created.”
Career coach Connie Thanasoulis-Cerrachio, co-founder of SixFigureStart® says her on-the-ground-interaction with employers and candidates echoes that sentiment: “We see a tale of two [labor] markets – strong candidates have a great market. Mediocre ones are still have a hard time.” What makes a strong candidate? It helps if those seeking jobs are looking in the hot industries that are hiring, like technology, healthcare, accounting, marketing/data analytics as well as the non-profit world, which Thanasoulis-Cerrachio says is “booming”.
Even if many parts of the economy are growing and employees do eventually see an uptick in their paychecks (Capital Economics expects “to see a marked acceleration in hourly wage growth to around 3 percent by year-end”), the stock market may still stumble, due to valuations, exogenous events across the globe or plain old exhaustion, which brings us back to the original question of selling in May. According to Charles Schwab, “since 1950, nearly all of the S&P 500’s gains have occurred between October and April. The mean return during May through October was 1.3 percent; while for November through April it was 7.1 percent.”
Unfortunately, “Sell in May and Go Away” hasn’t been as reliable over the past dozen years. It didn’t work from 2012-2014, or from 2003-2007, so you may want to stick to the tried and true strategy of investing in a diversified portfolio, targeted to your specific goals. Not as catchy as “Sell in May and Go Away”, but probably a smarter way to manage your money.
MARKETS:
THE WEEK AHEAD:
Mon 5/2:
AIG
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
Tues 5/3:
CBS, BMY
Motor Vehicle Sales
Weds 5/4:
Tesla, Lending Tree, Priceline
8:15 ADP Private Sector Employment Report
8:30 International Trade
8:30 Productivity and Costs
9:45 PMI Services Index
10:00 Factory Orders
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Thursday 5/5:
Alibaba, Merck, GoPro, Herbalife
Chain Store Sales
Friday 5/6:
8:30 April Employment Report
3:00 Consumer Credit
Thanksgiving is a time when we count our blessings. In addition to the big stuff, I like to use the opportunity to give thanks to the resources and organizations that improve our financial lives. The Financial Planning Coalition, a collaboration of the Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards (CFP Board), the Financial Planning Association (FPA), and the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors (NAPFA) has provided a strong and unified voice promoting the recognition and regulation of financial planners and increased investor protection. The big task that the Coalition has been trying to tackle is to educate policymakers and consumers about the importance of advice that is in the best interest of the client—the so-called fiduciary standard.
The coalition’s tireless efforts may soon pay off…next on my list of thanks goes to the United States Department of Labor, which is expected to finalize rules that would require financial advisors of all retirement accounts to put customers first. Although the industry has fought hard to thwart the initiative, most believe that it will survive. Its enactment would amount to the biggest changes to the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) since that law was drafted more than 40 years ago.
Thanks too must go to technology, which has greatly enhanced the ability to better manage personal finances. Mint, You Need A Budget (YNAB) are among the many free apps that help you keep track of your money, while Acorns and Level Money help you budget and then find even the smallest dollars that you can save or invest.
And a tip of the hat goes to the innovators of financial technology, like the folks at Betterment, Wealthfront, Motif investing and MarketRiders, who have introduced a cost efficient way for investors to better allocate and manage their investments and retirement accounts.
There are also plenty of terrific tools available to help people with their financial lives. The EBRI Choose to Save Ballpark Estimate is an easy to use calculator to help quantify retirement savings needs, FinAid is the go-to site for students and their families to help understand the various ways to pay for college; and LifeHappens helps families understand their life and disability insurance needs.
I am often asked about which financial blogs that I use to augment the multitude of publications that I need to do my job. I am thankful for the terrific work of Bill McBride of the Calculated Risk blog. In addition to his wise insights about the housing market, Bill has a wonderful way of providing much need context to a world of economic numbers. I am also grateful for Barry Ritholtz’ “The Big Picture”, with its great mix of information, humor and a healthy dose of skepticism. Although a bit wonkier, I always learn from economics professors James D. Hamilton and Menzie Chinn, who are the brains behind Econbrowser and Mark Thoma of Economist’s View.
What would I do without economic resources, like the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Reserve Bank FRED blog, with its nifty charting features; the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s research on Household Credit; the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ historic databases; the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ interactive data; and the IRS’ rich web site? The people at these organizations have also been incredibly generous with me.
On the research front, the folks at Pew Research Center, the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College and the Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce are producing some of the most interesting and useful publications, which help me in my job every day.
And finally, the greatest thanks goes to you—the readers, listeners and viewers, who take time out of your days to absorb my content and who generously provide commentary, both and good and bad. To quote Alice Walker, the words thank you “expresses extreme gratitude, humility, understanding.” On this Thanksgiving, thank you.
